Chinese economic growth for Q2 was reported to be at 5.2%, slower than 5.4% in Q1 but ahead of the consensus estimate of 5.1%. Limited tariff effects in the quarter assisted the economy in exceeding the government’s 5.0% target. Domestic retail sales grew by 4.8% in June, down from 6.4% in May, as consumer confidence remains low. There was growth in electric vehicle (EV) sales in H1 2025; they rose by 32% year-on-year to 5.5m units. Half of all passenger car sales in China are now EVs. Chinese import demand for non-ferrous ores including bauxite and battery metals looks set to grow, supporting dry bulk demand. Aluminium output was up 3.4% year on year in June and 3.3% year on year for H1 2025. Contrarily, steel output was down 3.9% month on month and down 9.2% year on year in June at 83.18m tonnes while H1 2025 output of 514.8m tonnes was down 3% year-on-year. Counter-intuitively, iron ore imports were up 8% in June compared to May at 106m tonnes, as Chinese buyers chased the falling iron ore price, which was down to $93.35 on July 1 before recovering to around $98 by July 17. Dry bulk carrier operators have enjoyed July so far, even if the Baltic Dry Index monthly average for July to date (1,598 points) is lagging the June average (1,686 points). Boosted by the recovery in Chinese iron ore purchases, the Baltic Capesize Index is up 43% so far in July at 3,021 vs 2,111 at the end of June, recovering all the reversals since June 19. Technical analysts will be looking for this momentum to take the BCI above its previous peak of 3,660 recorded on June 17. Brokers report steady trade and a balance of supply and demand, so there is potentially more to come from the recent rally in C5 (Port Hedland to Qingdao) which bottomed out at $7,904 on June 27 before racing to $23,836 on July 17. Rates from Brazil to China rose 32% over July to at $22,068 on July 17. Panamax freight rates are up as well in July, with the P5TC average on July 17 being $17,399, 29% higher than $13,502 recorded on June 30 and its highest level since June 2024. South American grain exports have helped to drive the market along with Chinese thermal coal imports. In the Atlantic, the daily TCE for a ship hired from Skaw/Gibraltar range to load in the US Gulf and sail via Panama to South China / Japan range rose 30% from $20,367 on June 30 to $26,450 on July 17. The rate for a ship fixed from the US Gulf to Qingdao via Panama rose 34% to $25,673 over the same dates. From Santos to Qingdao via Panama, rates rose 27% to $17,289. The South China to Indonesia round voyage (a coal collection and delivery) was up 26%, at $15,122, on July 17 compared to June 30, while the North Pacific round voyage from China to the west coast of North America and back was up 18% at $14,729. The joy spread to the geared bulker market in both East and West. A 63,000 dwt bulker on the round voyage from and back to China via Indonesia improved by 37% to $13,793 in the first 17 days of July while the trip from China via Indonesia to India, also a coal voyage, added 31% to reach $16,818. Agricargo rates from the US Gulf to China via Panama on a 63,000 dwt ship ballooned 46% to $28,418 while the trip out via South American Atlantic ports to China rose 39% to $21,771 between June 30 and July 17. Ultramax bulkers in the Atlantic joined in the fun, with the eastbound voyage from the US Gulf to NW Europe improving by 42% to $29,021. The TCE for the voyage from West Africa via the east coast of South America to