UBS cuts Eurozone growth forecasts amid Iran conflict risks in World Economy News 14/04/2026 UBS slashed its Eurozone growth forecasts, citing the ongoing Iran conflict as a key driver of lower growth, higher inflation and tighter monetary policy across the region. The brokerage cut its 2026 Eurozone GDP forecast by 0.5 percentage points to 0.8% and its 2027 forecast by 0.2 percentage points to 1.2%, leaving its 2028 projection unchanged at 1%. The analysts had previously projected growth of 1.3% and 1.4% for 2026 and 2027 respectively. “Risks to these revised forecasts seem skewed to the downside, particularly if the conflict persists for longer and more damage is done to energy infrastructure, leading to higher energy prices, greater uncertainty, and potential supply chain disruptions,” the brokerage said. Germany and Italy face steeper exposure than France and Spain due to their larger share of energy-intensive industry. UBS halved its Germany 2026 GDP forecast to 0.6% from 1.2%, projecting 1.5% in 2027. Italy’s 2026 forecast was cut to 0.5% from 0.9%. France was trimmed to 0.9% for 2026 and 1% for 2027. Spain, described as the “growth champion” among large Eurozone economies, saw only a 0.1 percentage point cut to 2.2% in 2026 and 1.7% in 2027. Outside the Eurozone, the UK’s 2026 forecast was cut by 0.5 percentage points to 0.6%, reflecting limited fiscal space, a soft labour market and faster pass-through of wholesale gas prices. Switzerland’s forecast was trimmed to 1.1% for both 2026 and 2027, while Sweden’s 2026 projection was lowered to 2%. On inflation, Eurozone HICP rose 0.6 percentage points to 2.5% year-on-year in March, driven by higher energy prices. UBS projected a further rise to 3% in April, peaking at 3.4% in May before declining to 3.2% by December, averaging 2.8% for full-year 2026 and 2.3% in 2027. The ECB is expected to raise rates by 25 basis points each in June and September, bringing the deposit rate to 2.5%. Market pricing for ECB rates shifted hawkish by 82.2 basis points since February 27. The Bank of England is expected to hold before cutting in November 2026 and February 2027, with its policy rate seen at 3.50% by end-2026. The Swiss National Bank is forecast to hold at 0.00% through 2026 before hiking in mid-2027. Sweden’s Riksbank is seen on hold at 1.75% through year-end. On fiscal policy, UBS expects government support to remain limited at under 0.5% of GDP, focused on energy tax cuts including Italy’s excise tax reduction and Spain’s VAT cut on electricity from 21% to 10%, far below the approximately 2% of GDP deployed in 2022-23. The bank estimated such measures would add at most 10-20 basis points to GDP growth. Source: Investing.com 2026-04-14 hellenicshippingnews... window.___gcfg = {lang: 'en-US'}; (function(w, d, s) { function go(){ var js, fjs = d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0], load = function(url, id) { if (d.getElementById(id)) {return;} js = d.createElement(s); js.src = url; js.id = id; fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js, fjs); }; load('//connect.facebook.net/en/all.js#xfbml=1', 'fbjssdk'); load('https://apis.google.com/js/plusone.js', 'gplus1js'); load('//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js', 'tweetjs'); } if (w.addEventListener) { w.addEventListener("load", go, false); } else if (w.attachEvent) { w.attachEvent("onload",go); } }(window, document, 'script')); tweet Share