Europe’s middle distillate supply at risk from Iran crisis in Freight News 09/03/2026 The lack of transits recently witnessed in the Strait of Hormuz is already having an impact on middle distillate flows to Europe, sending gasoil cracks soaring across the globe. Europe is highly dependent on middle distillates transiting via the Strait of Hormuz, having received over 25% of total middle distillate imports (excl. intra-Europe flows) over the last two years from origins inside the strait. Although several factors could cushion the immediate impact, sustained disruptions around Hormuz could pose significant challenges for Europe’s middle distillate supply. As a possible pre-emptive action to the recent events, Saudi Arabia has increased middle distillate exports from the Red Sea in February, bringing exports at a record 690kbd in Vortexa’s 2016–2026 dataset, with roughly 55% destined for Europe, and the rest mainly going to North and East Africa. The likeliest alternative to Middle East Gulf supply to Europe is expected to be PADD 3, where ample diesel inventories suggest export availability remains healthy, supported by declining imports from Brazil (down 20% m-o-m) which takes more diesel from Russia (up 30% y-o-y). However, low PADD 1 diesel inventories (30% below seasonal norms) could constrain volumes available for exports out of PADD 3. As of 3 March, there are ~55mb of middle distillates in transit pointing to Europe (excluding intra-Europe flows), 50% higher than seasonal norms. The majority originates from the Middle East Gulf and was shipped prior to disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz. March is seasonally a weaker demand month for middle distillates in Europe. Historically, it records the second lowest average monthly imports of the year at ~3.1mbd, 9% below the typical monthly level. ARA diesel inventories have risen steadily since January and are currently aligned with seasonal norms, while ARA jet fuel inventories sit slightly above seasonal averages. Taken together, these factors indicate that, from a physical supply perspective, Europe can absorb a temporary disruption through the Strait of Hormuz, beyond any immediate market price impacts. Prolonged closure, however, would likely tighten balances and the European market would need to compete more directly with East & South Africa for Red Sea-origin barrels. Meanwhile a rise in Russian crude purchases by India in response to higher crude prices could continue to constrain India’s middle distillate exports to Europe, given the EU’s ban on products derived from Russian crude. Despite looming logistical constraints, middle distillate loadings from Kuwait have not stopped. We observed 2 tankers loading jet and diesel from Kuwait yesterday (March 2), signalling various locations in Europe. Neither has made it through the Strait as of March 03, and we have only seen 1 small tanker carrying middle distillates (TM HAI HA 818, loaded in Bahrain) pass through the Strait since the start of the tensions on Feb 28. Meanwhile, ongoing maintenance across European refineries including Exxon Antwerp refinery (90kbd) (Argus), Cartagena refinery (220kbd) (Repsol), the Milazzo refinery (200kbd), Bilbao refinery (220kbd) (Bloomberg), and the Gdansk refinery (210kbbd) (Argus), will likely constrain middle distillate supplies in Europe. Source: Vortexa 2026-03-09 hellenicshippingnews... window.___gcfg = {lang: 'en-US'}; (function(w, d, s) { function go(){ var js, fjs = d.getElementsByTagName