A year ago, many analysts were forecasting that oil shipments could fall in 2025 by as much as 2%, dragging tanker freight markets with them. The three main reasons for pessimism were: the OPEC+ production cap; the rise of EVs and low-emission transport technology; and the advent of Trump 2.0 with much vaunted trade tariffs which, it was assumed, would plunge the global economy into recession. A year later, most agencies have decided that the energy transition is not as advanced as they had thought. Even the champion of renewables, the International Energy Agency, no longer forecasts a peak in oil demand until the mid-2030s at the earliest. OECD governments have rolled back unrealistically early phase-out dates for ICE vehicles. Mr Trump’s tariffs have been inconvenient but hardly apocalyptic, resulting in reorganised rather than reduced trade. The Pacific liner shipping sector has been most affected, while oil trade has hardly been impacted at all. Few analysts expected that in 2025 OPEC+ would restore all of the 2.5m barrels per day oil production it had cut over the previous two years. But then very few observers expected oil demand to grow 0.8m barrels per day this year to 104m barrels per day. Almost nobody expected China to import more oil this year to expand its strategic petroleum reserve. Beijing has bought an extra 58m barrels so far this year, adding around 30 VLCC cargoes to demand, and there is no indication that it will stop soon, having just placed orders for 50m barrels of Middle East crude for January loading, which is 10m barrels more than for December loading. It turns out that OPEC+ had a more realistic view than the IEA of how 2025 would evolve: with limited effect on the economy from trade tariffs, increased oil demand, and the need to increase supply, which peaked at 109m barrels per day in September, though December supply looks likely to average 107.5m barrels per day. The US added to the oil glut with record production of almost 13.9m barrels per day by September, despite a falling rig count and lower oil price. Shale oil just gets more and more efficient. The Trump administration reopened the Gulf of Mexico and Alaska for drilling, with the first licences already being issued. Non-OPEC production has grown rapidly, especially in the Americas, where Guyana and Brazil have led the way, directly benefiting the suezmax freight market in the Atlantic. At the end of November, global crude oil shipments were at an all-time high of 1.4bn barrels, according to tanker tracking firm Vortexa. The BDTI averaged in 1,150 points in 2023; 1,094 in 2024; and 1,053 in 2025, up to December 15. It feels like the seasonal peak has passed for the year. This disguises the boom in average VLCC earnings from $22,827 in 2023 to $37,692 in 2024, then on to $49,113 for this year to date and $91,392 for this quarter to date, making this the best year and best quarter since 2008. It is the same story for suezmax earnings, which have averaged $77,168 this quarter, the best since 2008, along with an average of $49,438 so far this year, also the best since 2008. Afras have fared less well, averaging $36,035 so far this year compared to $39,789 last year and more than $45,000 in 2022 and 2023. It has been a vintage year for long-haul oil shipping. The year has been less exciting though still profitable for refined oil products tankers. Using Baltic Exchange data, LR2s have averaged $18,150 per day after averaging more than $28,800 last year. L