ING: Our latest views on the major central banks in World Economy News 15/06/2026 Federal Reserve The US economy is more insulated from Middle East risks than most countries due to its energy independence, but it is not immune. Higher motor fuel costs are adding to cost pressures, with inflation breaking above 4%. Business surveys currently point to 2-2.5% GDP growth; the economy is adding jobs and equity markets are at record highs. Understandably, market expectations of potential Federal Reserve rate hikes have increased. That said, the US growth story is concentrated in high-income household spending and tech investment, while only three sectors – government, private education & healthcare services and leisure & hospitality – are actually adding jobs. The low-hire, low-fire economy means weak wage growth, with real household disposable income having fallen for three consecutive months. Consequently, a renewed spike in energy costs risks demand destruction. It is a very close call whether the Fed will hike rates this year, but on balance we think it will instead choose to look through a near-term energy spike and hold rates steady for an extended period. Consumer and market inflation expectations remain in tolerable ranges and slowing housing rents, weak wage growth, a waning influence from tariffs and eventual energy price falls mean that inflation could undershoot the target in the second half of 2027. We look for 25bp rate cuts in 2Q 2027 and 3Q 2027 as policy eventually returns to a neutral setting. James Knightley European Central Bank Even if the current inflation wave in the eurozone is very different from soaring and self-enforcing inflation in 2022, a lot of the European Central Bank’s actions seem to be driven by the institutional memory of 2022. Not so much by recent inflation developments. So far, the increase in headline inflation has remained moderate. And while the knock-on effects of higher energy prices on other prices, like transportation