Oil price forecast: A bearish outlook for Brent in 2026 in Oil & Companies News 02/03/2026 Global oil markets are navigating a challenging environment characterized by strong demand, even stronger supply growth and evolving geopolitical risks. In light of these factors, what’s the outlook for oil prices? What’s the forecast for oil prices for 2026 and beyond? Despite a recent spike in oil prices, J.P. Morgan Global Research expects to see Brent crude averaging around $60/bbl in 2026. This bearish forecast is underpinned by soft supply-demand fundamentals, which point to lower oil prices in the coming months. While world oil demand is projected to expand by 0.9 million barrels per day (mbd) in 2026, global oil supply is set to outpace demand — though production cuts are likely. “Oil surplus was visible in January data and is likely to persist,” said Natasha Kaneva, head of Global Commodities Strategy at J.P. Morgan. “Looking ahead, our balances continue to project sizable surpluses later this year, suggesting that voluntary and involuntary production cuts will be needed to prevent excessive inventory accumulation. This would help stabilize Brent prices at around $60/bbl.” “Regime changes in oil-producing countries — whether through leadership transitions, coups, revolutions or major political shifts — can have a profound impact on oil policy, production and global oil prices, in both the short and long term.” Natasha Kaneva Head of Global Commodities Strategy, J.P. Morgan How might geopolitical risks impact global oil markets? Geopolitical risks remain a wild card, however. Conflicts can vastly impact oil supply and demand, fueling price volatility. For instance, the evolving situation in Venezuela could pose a considerable upside risk to global oil supply, especially as the country sits on the largest proven oil reserves in the world. More recently, markets have turned bullish on oil prices in anticipation that the U.S. will take military action against Iran, with Brent trading around $10/bbl above fair value in mid-February. “But given elevated inflation and this year’s midterm elections in the U.S., we do not anticipate protracted oil supply disruptions. If military action does occur, we expect it to be targeted, avoiding Iran’s oil production and export infrastructure,” Kaneva said. “With the region’s proximity to major energy chokepoints, brief, geopolitically driven crude rallies are likely to continue, but these should eventually subside, leaving soft underlying global market fundamentals.” On a broader level, however, sweeping political reform in Iran could have a significant impact on global oil prices. “Regime changes in oil-producing countries — whether through leadership transitions, coups, revolutions or major political shifts — can have a profound impact on oil policy, production and global oil prices, in both the short and long term,” Kaneva noted. “While demand conditions and OPEC’s spare capacity significantly shape the overall market impact, these events typically lead to a substantial spike in oil prices, averaging a 76% increase from onset to peak.” Since 1979, there have been eight notable instances of regime change in medium- to large-scale oil-producing nations, each with significant implications for global oil prices and supply dynamics. After the Iranian Revolution, for example, oil prices more than doubled, triggering a global economic recession. Iranian crude oil production has not recovered since, and remains