Shipping: The Hormuz Strait Conundrum After The War in the Middle East in Hellenic Shipping News 10/04/2026 Even if the current war in the Middle East is resolved peacefully in the coming weeks, shipping in the region will probably still have to face a new reality. In its latest weekly report, shipbroker Intermodal said that “for most of the past decade, the Gulf states tried to live with Iran rather than settle the Iran problem. They hardened air defence, built diplomatic channels, and kept repeating the same basic formula. Contain the threat, avoid a regional war, and keep the economic transformation story moving. That approach made sense while Iran was mainly a military and political headache. It makes much less sense once Iranian retaliation starts reaching airports, ports, refineries, industrial plants and commercial shipping across the Gulf. At that point, the issue stops being just about security. It becomes a direct threat to the business model these states have spent years and hundreds of billions of dollars trying to build”. Source: Intermodal According to Intermodal’s Head of Research Development, Mr. Yiannis Parganas, “that is why the Gulf reaction now looks tougher behind closed doors than it does in public. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait and Bahrain appear to be making the case that pressure on Iran should continue until its ability to intimidate its neighbours is materially reduced, while Oman and Qatar still lean more toward a diplomatic exit. It would be too strong to say that every Gulf capital is openly campaigning for regime change. They are not. But it is no longer hard to see why some of them may conclude that a short war ending with the same Iranian missile, proxy and maritime threat intact would be the worst possible outcome”. Mr. Parganas noted that “the UAE is probably the clearest case. Dubai welcomed 19.59 million overnight visitors in 2025. DXB handled a record 95.2 million passengers, the highest annual international traffic ever recorded by any airport. This is not a small side business. It is the core of Dubai’s identity as a hub for aviation, tourism, finance, property and trade. Once that image of safety is shaken, the effect is immediate. In early March, UAE real estate transactions were reported down 37 percent year on year and 49 percent month on month. Dubai has already announced a 1 billion dirham support package, while the UAE central bank allowed banks to tap up to 30 percent of required reserves to protect liquidity. Those are not the moves of a market brushing off a temporary shock. They are the moves of a system trying to defend confidence before the damage becomes self-feeding”. “Saudi Arabia faces the same issue in a different form. Vision 2030 still looks huge on paper, but it is also capital-hungry and confidence-sensitive. The Kingdom’s 2026 budget projects a deficit of around SAR 165 billion. PIF assets under management stood at $913 billion at end-2024, which shows financial firepower, but not infinite insulation. Riyadh has already achieved or kept on track 85 percent of Vision 2030 targets, and the tourism ambition has now been lifted to 150 million annual visitors by 2030. The problem is simple. A country trying to sell itself as a tourism, logistics, finance and investment destination cannot comfortably coexist with a neighbour that can repeatedly impose a war-risk discount on the entire region. Saudi oil revenues were already down 20 percent in 2025. Higher oil prices can soften tha