ICIS OUTLOOK: What to expect from European energy markets in H2 2026: 10 key questions in Oil & Companies News 15/06/2026 The first half of 2026 was defined by the return of geopolitical risk to European energy markets. Expectations of a comfortable year were upended by the outbreak of war in Iran and the disruption to LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz, driving higher gas prices and renewed concerns over winter supply security. Power markets largely followed gas, while carbon markets saw heightened volatility amid concerns over potential political intervention and the future direction of EU climate policy. We asked ICIS experts 10 key questions on what market participants should expect in the second half of the year for European gas, power and carbon markets. When do you expect the Strait of Hormuz to re-open? Andreas Schroeder (Head of Gas Analytics): Our current base case view is a return of LNG output from Qatar and United Arab Emirates by August 2026 at a reduced capacity due to the damage to two of the fourteen LNG trains at Ras Laffan. We do forecast some limited output of less than 10% of capacity in the near-term, mainly due to deliveries to Kuwait inside the Strait of Hormuz. While a full reopening by August is still possible, it also is relatively optimistic given the current ongoing stalemate in peace talks. A closure of the strait for much longer than August would obviously have bullish implications for the gas market. We therefore run a regular scenario with a one-year long Hormuz closure out to March 2027. How quickly do LNG flows normalise once Hormuz reopens? Andreas Schroeder: Qatar’s Ras Laffan plant continues to produce at a low rate below 10%. A full restart of twelve trains is likely to take weeks, given the number of steps and the risk of an unexpected issue during the process. Empty vessels would need multiple days, if not weeks, to return to Qatar with some already under sub-charter. Once loaded, we expect journey times to Europe of