The Commodities Feed: Peace talk optimism clouds reality in Oil & Companies News 21/04/2026 Energy- Oil trading on hopes rather than reality While energy markets popped higher yesterday following Iran’s decision to reverse its opening of the Strait of Hormuz, they’re still trading in a manner which suggests optimism over US-Iran talks. The aim, of course, is to establish a viable off-ramp that enables energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz to resume on a sustained, long-term basis. But we believe markets are underpricing the ongoing supply disruption. Optimism appears to be clouding the reality of the supply shock. Negotiations between the US and Iran are set to resume in Pakistan, with US Vice President JD Vance set to attend. It appears Iran will send a delegation too. This follows earlier suggestions that Iran wouldn’t attend as long as the US blockade continues. These talks are important, with the current ceasefire set to end on Wednesday. President Trump has suggested he is unlikely to extend the ceasefire. Therefore, a lack of progress would likely push oil and gas prices higher. This would create significant uncertainty over when energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz might return to normal. The longer these supply disruptions persist, the tighter the oil market becomes, leaving a longer path towards normalisation for markets once hostilities end. Energy flows will take time to recover. Upstream production will also take time. We also need to see restocking globally following significant stock drawdowns. Taking these factors into account—along with the likelihood that any US–Iran agreement would remain fragile—it appears that while oil prices would face downside pressure, the market’s floor for the rest of the year is considerably higher than it was before the war. The European gas market is also becoming more optimistic about the prospect of a peace deal. TTF is currently trading below EUR40/MWh. These are basically the levels we saw in late January amid the deep freeze across the US, when there was plenty of concern over US LNG export supply. The current disruption in Persian Gulf LNG supplies is clearly more impactful for the market, yet prices don’t appear to fully reflect this. For the European gas market, LNG send-outs remain seasonally strong, while gas storage has broken back above 30% full. This will offer some comfort to the market. Moreover, global gas demand is set to weaken, with the power sector switching from gas to coal, easing some of the upward pressure on prices. In terms of LNG supply, the market is tight. Golden Pass LNG in the US is set to imminently load its first LNG cargo from train 1, but with this train having an annual capacity of around 6 mtpa, it is far short of the 77 mtpa of Qatari LNG capacity currently disrupted. Metals – Gold softer on renewed inflation concerns Gold started the week on a weaker footing as higher oil and gas prices reignited inflation concerns. Ongoing disruptions risk around the Strait of Hormuz are keeping energy markets supported, reinforcing inflation expectations and acting as a near-term headwind for gold. We see this capping upside in the short term, though downside risks appear limited. Elevated geopolitical tensions and continued uncertainty around Hormuz should underpin haven demand. Attention now shifts to Tuesday’s US Senate confirmation hearing for Kevin Warsh, nominee to chair the Federal Reserve. Any hawkish signals could add further pressure on gold. While