THINK Ahead: 2026 in 10 charts (Part two) in Stock News 12/01/2026 From AI investment to tax bonanzas, rate cuts to inflation, here’s the second instalment of James Smith’s top charts for 2026. Check out part one if you missed it. Read on for more of this year’s big themes, plus our look into a busy week ahead 1. Can the US economy power onwards despite a fragile jobs market? US economic growth is surging. The US jobs market is under pressure. How can those two things be true at the same time? The answer, says our US economist James Knightley, is bifurcation. Most households expect unemployment to rise, and confidence is weak. But with equity markets at record highs, the top 20% – who hold 70% of the wealth – are still spending freely. Investment shows a similar pattern. Claims that the US would have been in recession last year without AI were wildly overstated, but it’s true that without software and IT equipment, fixed investment growth would have been negative. Those categories alone added 0.8pp to the 2.3% annual GDP growth recorded in Q3 – though the boost is lower once you factor in imported AI components. So yes, US growth is solid – but it’s concentrated. It’s a trend we expect to continue into 2026. But it’s also a reminder that the risk of a tech bubble is so central to the US economic outlook this year. 2. Will fiscal stimulus propel the global economy to new heights? If Covid-19 taught us anything, it’s that fiscal stimulus – much more so than monetary – can be a real economic game-changer. And there’s plenty of it this year. Take Germany: Carsten Brzeski likens its stimulus to a ketchup bottle – nothing for ages, then a sudden splurge from infrastructure and defence. We may already be seeing the first drops, with this week’s new orders and production data looking solid. The US, meanwhile, gets some support from last year’s tax bill. Many provisions, such as eliminating taxes on tips and overtime, are backdated to early 2025. According to James K, that could mean 2026 is a record year for tax refunds – and the chart below shows these payments typically peak sharply at the end of February. Lower to middle-income households stand to benefit the most. Then there’s President Trump’s “tariff rebate” idea. It’s gone quiet, but with political pressure rising ahead of November’s midterms, talk of direct cash payments could easily return. How it would be funded – especially if emergency tariffs are struck down by the Supreme Court – is a big open question. As is whether Congress agrees to it. Still, could all this finally soften the “K‑shaped” divide and help the bottom half spend more like the top? With job insecurity high and interest rates still elevated, much of the money may simply go toward debt repayment rather than spending, unlike the early‑Covid stimulus checks. And any boost could be further diluted by the expiration of Affordable Care Act subsidies, which are driving health insurance costs sharply higher. 3. How far can US inflation fall? Fed Chair Powell said in December that tariffs have largely run their course on US inflation. And there are signs he’s right: price rises for tariff‑sensitive goods like audio equipment and appliances have cooled in recent months, and the ISM surveys release this week showed fewer firms raising prices. Yet the effective tariff rate tells a more nuanced story. Based on White House announcements, tariffs should be yielding 16-17% of the value of imported goods. In practice, the rate was 12