Hormuz oil shock tilts shipping towards alternative fuels in International Shipping News 24/06/2026 Alternative fuels more attractive now as oil shoots higher The Middle East conflict and blockade of the Strait of Hormuz have disrupted oil supply and pushed shipping fuel prices, like marine gas oil (MGO), sharply higher. In this environment, fuel strategy is no longer just about cost, but also about securing supply and managing price risks. At the same time, higher prices and greater uncertainty are shifting the relative economics of alternative fuels, even as regulatory progress has slowed with the delayed introduction of a global carbon price under the IMO’s Net Zero Framework. Our modelling shows how the costs and economics of renewable fuels of non-biological origin (RFNBOs) – also called synthetic or e-fuels – change in a high oil price scenario, from a Northwest European perspective. The Middle East war has squeezed the supply of oil and oil products. LNG is similarly affected, but less so, as more capacity is coming online, and natural gas continues to be supplied through regional production and pipelines. Our analysis translates the current geopolitical risk into a simple message for shipowners and cargo owners: when oil products spike and gas rises less, the relative economics of LNG and (to a lesser degree) methanol and even ammonia improve quickly, even if the absolute cost of all energy carriers rises. Decarbonisation requires shift to lower carbon fuels While geopolitical tensions do not alter the fundamental science behind decarbonisation, and hence emissions, they do influence the economics of the business case for different fuels. Traditional marine fuels such as marine gas oil (MGO) and very low sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) currently generate approximately 1,900 kg of CO2 per deadweight tonne for every 1,000 kilometres sailed. This carbon footprint can be lowered by transitioning to alternatives like LNG or synthetic fuels, like methanol and ammonia. Ho