FX Daily: Dollar support broadens in Daily Currencies Ratings 03/06/2026 USD: De-basement trade under pressure The dollar continues to edge higher as US data surprises on the upside, and the market considers a Fed hike this year. Yesterday’s US April JOLTS data was the latest to surprise, with job openings rising to the highest levels since May 2024. The headline number seems flattered by the rise in professional and business services, but the data supports the narrative that the US economy could be re-accelerating despite stretched consumer finances. There may be more positive US data today in the form of the monthly ADP employment figure – a healthy +120k advance is expected – and then the May ISM services figure. The latter provides insights into order books, employment and prices, all of which could support the view that the Fed might have to hike by the end of the year. This evening also sees the release of the Fed’s Beige Book ahead of the 17 June FOMC meeting. Reports of steady labour markets and any signs of robust pricing power should send short-dated US rates and the dollar higher. Looking at financial markets more broadly, we can see low volatility favouring carry trade strategies in the high-yielding energy-exporting currencies of Brazil and Nigeria. We can see South Asian currencies under heavy pressure – e.g. Indonesia – as trade surpluses are wiped out by the oil shock. And now in the G10 space, we can see the dollar winning a few friends on the view that the Fed may have to tighten after all. It also looks like there could be further unwinding of last year’s popular dollar de-basement trade idea, where expectations of a compromised Fed had led to demand for gold, bitcoin and the Swiss franc. Gold and bitcoin certainly have not performed as well as expected through this year’s inflation shock, and a more hawkish Fed over the coming months could well be played out via a higher USD/CHF. We favour DXY to test the top of the short-term trading range at 99