Fair value of crude prices is in the low $60s without the Iran shock: GS in Oil & Companies News 16/03/2026 Fair value of crude oil prices would likely sit in the low $60s per barrel absent the current Iran-related supply shock, Goldman Sachs strategist says, while warning that disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz (SoH) could push prices significantly higher depending on how long flows remain constrained. “We estimate the fair value of crude prices based on the cumulative hits to Persian Gulf crude production and to commercial oil inventories after accounting for policy responses and assuming a Brent fair value in the low $60s without the Iran shock,” Daan Struyven, co-head of Goldman global commodities research, said in a note. Explore top analysts’ oil price forecasts with InvestingPro Despite the recent volatility, Goldman has not changed its core oil forecast. “Because the SoH flows data are noisy and the broader situation remains fluid, we have not changed our oil price forecast (Brent/WTI at $66/62 in 2026Q4 and $70/66 in 2027) but estimate the large upside risks in longer disruption scenarios,” Struyven wrote. Struyven outlined two different approaches for assessing oil price outcomes tied to the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. The first evaluates prices after uncertainty about the disruption fades, while the second considers the period during the shock when markets price in significant uncertainty over the duration of supply losses. Under the “after the shock” framework, the strategist estimates fair-value crude prices by assessing the cumulative hit to Persian Gulf production and global oil inventories while accounting for policy responses such as strategic petroleum reserve releases. He assumes a net supply shock of around 15 million barrels per day to Persian Gulf exports in its risk scenarios. Based on these assumptions, Struyven forecasts that if Persian Gulf exports fall by 15 mb/d for 30 days, Brent crude could reach around $76 per barrel in fair value terms, while a longer 60-day disruption could push fair value closer to $93 per barrel. During the disruption itself, however, oil prices could overshoot these levels if markets begin pricing in demand destruction to prevent inventories from falling below critical thresholds. Goldman’s modeling suggests that if Strait of Hormuz flows remain severely constrained for much of March, oil prices could temporarily exceed the peaks seen during the 2008 and 2022 oil shocks. According to Struyven, such scenarios would represent “the largest monthly oil supply shock on record,” forcing markets to rapidly price demand destruction. Source: Investing.com 2026-03-16 hellenicshippingnews... window.___gcfg = {lang: 'en-US'}; (function(w, d, s) { function go(){ var js, fjs = d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0], load = function(url, id) { if (d.getElementById(id)) {return;} js = d.createElement(s); js.src = url; js.id = id; fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js, fjs); }; load('//connect.facebook.net/en/all.js#xfbml=1', 'fbjssdk'); load('https://apis.google.com/js/plusone.js', 'gplus1js'); load('//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js', 'tweetjs'); } if (w.addEventListener) { w.addEventListener("load", go, false); } else if (w.attachEvent) { w.attachEvent("onload",go); } }(window, document, 'script')); tweet Share