This year will go down as not a bad one for shipping, but it feels as if it is ending on a bit of a whimper. As of early December, the Baltic Dry Index rests at its year low of below 1,200. If it stays that way until January, it will be the third highest annual ‘low point’ in the past 15 years, so things could be a lot worse. Predictions for 2024 had been mixed with a combination of geopolitics and a swathe of elections providing plenty of uncertainty, but shipping seemed to come through it all intact. Indeed, some astute asset plays throughout the year have meant it has been a bumper earnings harvest for many. So what should we be looking forward to, or indeed possibly fearing for 2025? You will have to wait until next month for Splash Extra’s report on our annual meeting with our Chinese fortune teller, which in the past has proved uncannily accurate, but as the annual round of reviews and forecasts kicks in, here are a few of our own observations on the year ahead. 2024’s election cycle saw a few changes of government, but they generally seemed to have passed smoothly – at least so far. Next year will be the time when the real impact of these changes really begin to be felt. Things seem to have got off to a rough start in the UK, but of more importance to shipping, will be whether the new government of the world’s largest economy sticks to its election pledges. Tariffs, protectionism and trade wars have been a voluble part of the rhetoric, but will they actually come to pass and will they actually work in the way their proponents claim? Whether it be the birth or death of a ship, the year ahead poses plenty of challenges Tariffs may sound good in a stump speech, but they are proven to fuel inflation and are unlikely to lead to the reshoring of industries previously lost to lower cost countries. On the basis that to get re-elected next time round, politicians need to ensure their electorate feels wealthier, this may not be a winning strategy. So what will this all mean for shipping in the coming year? The rush to get exports overseas before any tariffs come into force has seen a surge in exports which is already forcing prices up. Italian olive oil producers are amongst the many complaining of the increased shipping costs and shortage of shipping space to get their product across the Atlantic. Whilst it is unlikely to lead to a covid style boom for the container industry, it could well push out a bit further any downturn prompted by the influx of new tonnage. Notably absent from news coverage since the US election has been the earlier calls by candidates to revitalise US shipbuilding and place punitive tariffs on foreign-built ships calling in the US. Whether this is because with the election out the way, the politicians no longer need to worry about voters in the rust belt states or that they correctly concluded that this crazy idea was not only impossible to enforce but was also economic suicide remains to be seen. With 65% of the global orderbook now being built in China, it’s likely that shipbuilding will remain a political football in the years to come. Equally important is the other end of the shipping cycle – demolition. The recycling of ships, or current lack of it, will help set the tone of shipping markets for the years ahead. The shadow fleet of tankers carrying Russian oil has had an extended lease of life but will inevitably face the end of their trading days soon, yet even recyclers are having to address the issue of goi