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Fitch Upgrades Port of Newcastle to ‘BBB’; Outlook Stable in Port News 30/01/2026 Fitch Ratings – Hong Kong/Sydney – 27 Jan 2026: Fitch Ratings has upgraded Port of Newcastle Investments (Financing) Pty Ltd’s (PON) Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) and senior secured debt to ‘BBB’ from ‘BBB-‘. The Outlook is Stable. RATING RATIONALE The upgrade reflects the continuity and effective implementation of PON’s shadow regulatory pricing model, including the annual true-up mechanism, which together materially strengthens long-term cash flow visibility, supports deleveraging and enhances refinancing capacity over the next three to five years. The new pricing framework has driven materially lower leverage, with Fitch rating-case net debt/EBITDA averaging 3.9x in 2026-2030. The company aims to diversify into non-coal businesses. Although leverage is below the current upgrade trigger, further positive rating action would require a sustained record of disciplined reinvestment and distribution policies, and demonstrated progress in implementing the diversification plan. KEY RATING DRIVERS Revenue Risk – Volume – High Midrange PON is the only export port with efficient infrastructure and established connectivity serving the Hunter Valley mining region in eastern Australia. Its high coal exposure is mitigated by the stable thermal and metallurgical coal supply, which is underpinned by 10-year rolling marketable reserve requirements at its two coal terminals. These require contracted producers to maintain sufficient marketable reserves to support forecast volumes over the next 10 years. Volume risk is further mitigated by the shadow regulatory pricing model, which allows channel service revenue to increase independently of throughput volume through a true-up mechanism. In addition, PON’s diversification strategy enhances its appeal to lenders and investors, aligning with broader sustainability and transition goals. Revenue Risk – Price – Stronger PON has demonstrated pricing flexibility and it has adjusted the waterside component of its wharfage charge via a building block approach under the newly implemented shadow regulatory pricing framework. This enables PON to earn a theoretical maximum allowable revenue on its channel service, which also includes the navigational service charge. This maximum is based on its channel asset base, providing an allowance for a return on capital, regulatory depreciation, recovery of operating expenditure and tax. The revenue not linked to the channel asset base benefits from annual price increases. In addition, about 20% of PON’s revenue comes from long-term contracted lease agreements with either CPI or fixed percentage escalators. Market rent reviews are also applied periodically. Infrastructure Dev. & Renewal – Midrange PON has an extensive capex programme to diversify from coal, including around AUD450 million of growth capex in 2026-2030, funded largely by internal cash. Liquidity and funding policies prioritise free cash flow preservation over distributions, limiting debt reliance to fund expansion projects and support stable metrics commensurate with a ‘BBB’ rating. It has no material contractual obligations and has high flexibility to defer expansion. Still, the assessment is limited to ‘Midrange’, as PON is under pressure to reduce coal reliance in the longer term. Debt Structure – 1 – Midrange All external debt is senior and secured on a pari passu basis, with tight covenants to protect l
Fitch Upgrades Port of Newcastle to ‘BBB’; Outlook Stable
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