Vessel tracking services show that last night’s news of the Middle East détente has yet to translate into a significant resumption in marine traffic along one of the world’s key energy chokepoints. In a dramatic eleventh-hour reprieve, a tentative two-week ceasefire has been agreed between the United States and Iran, narrowly averting a catastrophic escalation. The deal was brokered by Pakistan just 10 minutes before President Donald Trump’s deadline of 20:00 EDT on April 7, a deadline the US leader warned was the final buffer before “a whole civilisation will die.” While the agreement provides a critical window for diplomacy, the maritime industry is treating the development with extreme caution. The primary focus for owners is the nearly 1,000 international trading ships and 20,000 seafarers who have been trapped behind the Iranian chokehold since hostilities began on February 28. Oil prices reacted immediately to the news, with Brent and WTI both tumbling over 12% to trade well under the $100 mark. However, on the water, the opening of the strait is far from a return to normalcy. The terms of the deal, as described by Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi, require all transits to be “in coordination with Iran’s Armed Forces.” This suggests that Tehran intends to maintain a firm grip on the waterway’s spigot during the 14-day pause. For shipowners, the immediate priority is an exodus of tonnage currently stuck in the Gulf, rather than a rush of new entrants. We are likely to see vessels exit the Persian Gulf but be more cautious in entering Lars Jensen, CEO of consultancy Vespucci Maritime, highlighted this in a social media posting today. “From a risk perspective, we are likely to see vessels exit the Persian Gulf but be more cautious in entering the Gulf in case the ceasefire does not hold,” Jensen advised. The Dane has been providing daily updates on both the Hormuz and Red Sea shipping crises in recent years. BIMCO chief shipping analyst, Niels Rasmussen, agreed with Jensen, saying: “Unless the two-week window is quickly lengthened, I doubt there will be a large influx of ships into the Persian Gulf. Partly because many ships have already sailed to other regions and partly because they do not want to risk being trapped after the two-week window closes.” Rasmussen said even with a return to normal after the two weeks, oil exports will be impacted for some time as production needs to be restarted at several fields and as damage to infrastructure needs to be repaired. Arsenio Dominguez, secretary-general of the International Maritime Organization, said this morning he was already working with relevant parties to implement an appropriate mechanism to ensure the safe transit of ships through the strait. “The priority now is to ensure an evacuation that guarantees the safety of navigation,” Dominguez said. Echoing these comments, Thomas Kazakos, secretary-general of the International Chamber of Shipping, said: “An immediate return to freedom of navigation is now essential, and states should work with shipping to ensure orderly and unimpeded transits through the strait.” For the tanker market, the potential return of compliant Iranian crude remains a long-term prospect, but the immediate reality is one of continued friction. Shipping analysts at Scandinavian bank SEB noted that while a full restart of shutdown production will take time, the current inefficiency remains a factor for the markets. “High inefficiencies should continue, whi