India reshapes Russian oil trade; market tightens as Moscow eyes China in Freight News 16/02/2026 At the moment, the oil market is riddled with different scenarios, which keep investors on their toes. The prospect of India completely stopping Russian oil imports may lead to market tensions and supply mismatch, according to experts. Moreover, experts argue, Russia would not be able to find alternative buyers if India stops purchasing oil from Moscow. Russian oil imports plummet and market tightens On Wednesday, the price of Brent crude oil was near $69.70. Prices rose as global markets closely watched and speculated on whether the recent policy adjustments by the US would successfully deliver the promised economic expansion, Rystad Energy’s Chief Economist, Claudio Galimberti, said. The rivalry between China and the US over critical minerals is intensifying, even as India yields to pressure from the US administration to significantly curb its imports of Russian oil, he added. “Markets continue to reward hard flow data over political signaling, with execution – not intent – set to drive the next leg,” Galimberti added. India is unlikely to fully halt Russian oil imports due to its commitment to maintaining strategic autonomy, according to Rystad Energy. Russia risks losing crucial market, deepening reliance on China Consequently, Russia faces the risk of losing a crucial seaborne export market, which could force it into greater dependence on China, Galimberti noted. This shift is likely to result in weaker realised pricing for Russia as it is compelled to offer deeper discounts to sustain the movement of its oil barrels. The diplomatic pattern – where the US President claims a win, India’s Prime Minister adjusts without confirming, and Russia’s President signals continuity – is likely to persist, while flows do the real talking. According to experts, oil prices have shown recent strength partly due to the fact that India was moving away from Russian oil imports. This is likely to happen as part of the bilateral trade agreement with the US. The 25% punitive tariff that US President Donald Trump had imposed on India six months ago, specifically due to India’s procurement of Russian oil, has now been lifted. “Sources close to refineries and to trading report that Indian refineries will no longer purchase Russian oil for delivery in April,” Carsten Fritsch, commodity analyst at Commerzbank AG, said in a report. Most refineries are no longer buying Russian oil, though some will still accept delivery for March, Fritsch added. The oil market is likely to tighten significantly as a result. India will need to find alternative sources for the 1.1–1.2 million barrels per day of oil that it had been importing from Russia, a volume that was consistent through December. Flows of oil had started to change in October itself. Indian refiners significantly reduced their reliance on Russian crude, with imports plummeting by approximately 800,000 barrels per day since October, Rystad Energy’s data showed. This sharp decline is due to a shift towards more diverse sources, including Middle Eastern, African, and Latin American oil. Can Russia find new buyers? While a complete cessation is improbable given New Delhi’s commitment to strategic autonomy, the overall trend is clear. Russia risks losing a crucial market and becoming more reliant on China, accepting increasingly substantial discounts. “The question is whether Russia will find other buyers. The only re