Resilient global economy – growth expected to remain virtually unchanged in 2026 in World Economy News 05/02/2026 Despite tremendous geopolitical risks, continuing solid growth is expected for the global economy in 2026. In its economic outlook for the current year, Munich Re expects real GDP growth of 2.7%, similar to the previous year and in line with the average for the past ten years. However, the downside risks clearly outweigh the potential for higher growth. Geopolitical risks and the high level of uncertainty surrounding US economic and trade policy take centre stage. ‘’ In 2026, the global economy will have to deal with difficult conditions that would have hardly been imaginable just a few years ago. In 2025, the global economy proved to be more resilient than anticipated, and I expect this to continue in the current year. Michael Menhart, Global Chief Economist Munich Re The economic outlook 2026 at a glance: In many major economies, growth will likely be supported by fiscal policy stimuli in 2026. More expansionary monetary policies by many central banks should also have a positive effect, particularly on investment demand. The differences in growth between the major economic areas persist, with robust growth in the US, but only moderate growth in Europe. Although China is expected to grow somewhat more slowly in 2026, Asia’s emerging markets will continue to be the fastest-growing region in the world. The global decline in inflation rates is likely to continue in 2026, albeit at a slower pace. The main drivers of inflation in industrialised countries continue to be higher rates of price increases in the service sector, which are counteracted by falling energy prices. Trade conflicts and the high import tariffs imposed by the US have not had a significant impact on inflation worldwide, but have produced noticeable effects in the US. US: In the US, real GDP growth is likely to be 2.4% in the current year – not as high as in 2023/24, but slightly higher than in 2025 and thus in line with the average for the past 10 years. Private consumption will grow somewhat more slowly in 2026 and is becoming increasingly divided: while wealthier households significantly increase their spending, lower-income households suffer from persistently high prices, which are exacerbated by import tariffs. Strong investment in technology, and in artificial intelligence in particular, will continue to support growth in the US economy this year. The inflation rate remains above 2.5% and is not expected to fall significantly in 2026. The main drivers are still high inflation in the services sector and the continued visible influence of import duties on prices for consumer goods. Accordingly, the US Federal Reserve’s inflation target likely won’t be reached this year, either. However, as the US Fed must also keep an eye on labour market developments and there are signs of a slowdown, financial markets do expect further cuts in the key interest rate in 2026. Eurozone: At 1.1%, economic growth in the eurozone is expected to be slightly lower than in the previous year (1.4%) and remain below the ten-year average of 1.5% in 2026. The reasons for this subdued growth are primarily structural. In addition, the challenges in the global economic environment limit growth, particularly for export-dependent countries such as Germany. The differences in growth are distinct: after three years of recession and stagnation, Germany, the largest economy in the eurozone, wi