During the Trump tariff pause, the Pacific liner trade enjoyed a spike in shipments and freight rates. However, the rapid-fire policy changes have caused all kinds of distortions to the box shipping markets. Containerised imports to the US reached 13.88m teu in H1 2025, a 4% year-on-year rise. However, imports from China fell 3.7% to 5.14m teu, while those from Vietnam rose 36% to 1.22m teu and from South Korea the increase was 3.5%, to a total of (coincidentally) 1.22m teu. Japanese containerised exports to the US fell 7% to 0.21m teu. The port of Los Angeles reports that June 2025 imports of laden containers reached 470,449 teu. This was a 32% month-on-month increase over 355,950 teu in May and a 9.73% year-on-year increase. H1 2025 laden container imports were 4.956m teu, a 4.74% year-on-year increase. Los Angeles port executive director, Gene Seroka, told reporters on July 17 that when “hard policy goes in, we take a nose dive on cargo volume. When those goalposts shift, cargo picks up trying to race to the next deadline.” Seroka thinks there is “a little bit of an advance” in the peak season import of year-end volumes, but that the intermodal system needs time to adjust after dockworkers were laid off in May only to be rehired in June. Asked about the potential for secondary sanctions on China if it continues to buy Russian oil, Seroka notes that tariffs on China are currently 55% and that volumes from China have fallen since 2018 when the first tariffs came in. At that time China “was 60% of our business…today it’s 45%” The implication for imports is then clear as tariffs rise, not only on China but on other origins of imports to the US. The volatile tariff situation has led to transpacific freight rates to the US west coast peaking in mid-June at $5,994 per feu from where they have fallen around 60% to $2,337, returning to their pre-tariff-pause level. On the Asia to US east coast voyage via Panama, rates peaked at $7,183 per feu on June 20, and in the subsequent four weeks fell 37% to $4,501. Last month we asked if high rates were a plateau or only a spike? Now we have our answer. With only three trade deals done between the US and its overseas suppliers, a slump in trade volumes is on the cards for H2 2025. Freight rates suggest that slump could already be under way. This would be a sharp turn-around from the global teu lifts data published by Container Trade Statistics (CTS) which aggregates data from the carriers. CTS says that May 2025 global volumes were a record 16.34m teu, up around 4% year-on-year. Europe has become a key alternative destination for Asian exports, leading to trade tiffs between the EU and China (as we reported last month). The Asia-Med box freight rate peaked at $4,847 per feu on June 20, since when it has fallen around 25% to $3,700 per feu. The Asia to north Europe rate peaked at $3,096 on June 20 and then fell by around 22% to $3,400 in mid-July. The freight rate for EU to US container cargo remains flat at around $1,930 per feu but the rate from the US to the EU is down by a quarter from its mid-June peak of $624 to $475. Trump’s higher-than-expected levy on imports from the EU will almost certainly depress trade volumes. EU exports may find their way to South America, where demand remains firm, along with freight rates which, via Panama reached $3,130 in mid-July, their highest this year, though the rate to the east coast of South America was around 15% off its end-June peak of $880 to $750 by mid-J