Citi ups oil outlook as US-Iran talks falter, recommends near-term crude exposure in Oil & Companies News 28/04/2026 Citigroup has raised its oil price forecasts and is urging investors to add near-term crude exposure, pointing to the prolonged disruption to flows through the Strait of Hormuz and the slim prospects of an imminent diplomatic resolution between the United States and Iran. The bank now targets at $120 per barrel over the next zero to three months and has lifted its average quarterly price forecasts to $110, $95, and $80 per barrel for the second, third, and fourth quarters of 2026, respectively, up from prior estimates of $95, $80, and $75. Citi assigns a 50% probability to this base case, which assumes the Strait of Hormuz begins to reopen by the end of May, a month later than the bank had previously assumed. Analysts led by Maximilian Layton recommend “near-dated oil exposure as an outright view and as a hedge” against the risk that Iran continues to impair flows through at least the end of May. Citi frames the Iranian regime’s calculus around a DOV utility function — Deterrence, Oil revenue, and Vengeance — arguing the regime has financial and strategic incentives to keep the Strait effectively closed for now. As a result, this would “tighten global oil supply, accelerating inventory drawdowns, and pushing oil prices materially higher,” the analysts wrote. “We do not expect this to last indefinitely, but we certainly expect it can last for at least another month (our base case of oil), if not through the end of June (our bull case for oil).” The stalemate has pushed oil prices higher on Monday, with trading up 3% at $108.5 a barrel. Under its bull case, assigned a 30% probability, Citi sees Brent reaching $150 per barrel if disruptions persist through the end of June, with quarterly averages of $130, $130, and $100 for the second through fourth quarters. The bank also outlines a super-bull scenario involving energy infrastructure destruction or disruptions extending beyond two months, which it says could push prices to $160–$180 per barrel on a sustained basis. Citi estimates that roughly 500 million barrels of cumulative supply have been lost since the conflict began, with its base case projecting total losses of 1.3 billion barrels if the Strait remains impaired through May. Global inventories, the analysts say, are on track to reach their lowest levels in over a decade by the end of July under that scenario. The team also addressed why oil prices and broader risk assets have not reacted more sharply, pointing to the roughly 800 million barrel inventory build in the twelve months before the conflict, IEA strategic stock releases, and market expectations of a relatively swift resolution. Lower oil intensity relative to GDP, particularly in the U.S., has also cushioned the macroeconomic impact so far, Citi said. The bank’s previous base case, which assumed an imminent deal, has been reclassified as the bear case, carrying a 20% probability and implying quarterly Brent averages of $95, $80, and $75. Source: Investing.com 2026-04-28 hellenicshippingnews... window.___gcfg = {lang: 'en-US'}; (function(w, d, s) { function go(){ var js, fjs = d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0], load = function(url, id) { if (d.getElementById(id)) {return;} js = d.createElement(s); js.src = url; js.id = id; fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js, fjs); }; load('//connect.facebook.net/en/all.js#xfbml=1', 'fbjssdk'); load('https://apis.google.com/js/plusone.j