Global oil markets jittery over Hormuz risks, analysts eye $70 Brent in Oil & Companies News 09/02/2026 Oil prices, specifically Brent crude, could rise to $70 per barrel if tensions between the US and Iran escalated amid the ongoing talks in Oman, according to experts. Prices maintained a steady course on Friday, reflecting a cautious sentiment among global investors who were intently focused on developments emerging from crucial, high-stakes diplomatic talks. US-Iran talks and $70 Brent crude scenario “The main focus today is likely to be on the talks between Iran and the US. In the run-up to the talks, oil prices came under pressure because this fueled hopes of an easing of the conflict, which had previously threatened to escalate,” Barbara Lambrecht, commodity analyst at Commerzbank AG, said. However, both sides already appear to disagree on the content of the talks. At the start of the talks, Iran dampened expectations of a quick agreement. Lambrecht said: Should the situation become tense again, the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil could rise back to USD 70. These negotiations, taking place in Oman, involve the United States and Iran and are viewed as pivotal in de-escalating simmering tensions in the Middle East. The commodity market’s equilibrium was tenuous, underscored by pervasive anxieties over the potential for a renewed conflict in the region that could severely disrupt the global oil supply chain. The outcome of the Oman talks is therefore seen as a key factor that could determine the near-term volatility and direction of crude benchmarks. A successful diplomatic resolution is expected to ease supply concerns and potentially pressure prices downwards, while a breakdown in communication or an escalation of rhetoric could quickly send prices soaring amid renewed geopolitical risk premiums. “Investors are watching the US-Iran talks, and their sentiment is shaped by the outcome of these talks,” Tamas Varga, an oil analyst at brokerage PVM said. He said the market is currently anticipating the results of these negotiations. The ongoing tension between Iran and the US, stemming from a lack of consensus on their meeting agenda, is fueling investor anxiety over geopolitical risks. Iran insists on focusing solely on nuclear issues, a stance that clashes with the United States’ broader demands to include discussions on Iran’s ballistic missile program and its financial and logistical support for armed groups in the Middle East. This diplomatic deadlock carries significant economic implications, particularly for global energy markets. Strait of Hormuz: critical chokepoint Any potential escalation of hostilities or a breakdown in negotiations could severely disrupt international oil flows. This is because approximately one-fifth of the world’s total oil consumption must pass through the narrow Strait of Hormuz, the critical maritime chokepoint situated between Oman and Iran. The threat of closure or conflict in this vital waterway keeps the price of oil volatile and investors on edge. The Strait of Hormuz is a key export route for crude oil from several major producers. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Iraq, and Iran (all OPEC members) ship the majority of their crude through this strait. Should ongoing talks between the US and Iran reduce the risk of regional conflict, the downward pressure on oil prices could intensify. Capital Economics analysts project oil prices to drop to $50 a barrel by the end of 2026. Thei