Tankers VLCCs tend to make headlines when one spills some of its cargo, or rates shoot through the roof. The latter happened last week, something that had been brewing all month. Rates from the Arabian Gulf to China managed to briefly surpass $100,000 a day, something not experienced since just after Russia kicked off its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in early 2022. Explaining the surge, Greece’s Xclusiv Shipbrokers noted fundamental tonne-mile demand improved right where VLCCs live. Fixtures out of the Middle East Gulf firmed into mid-September, and transatlantic to Pacific VLCC legs rebounded from their summer lows, re-widening voyage lengths and tightening the list.Also, geopolitics continue to push barrels and tonnage out of their “old grooves”, Xclusiv wrote in a weekly report. Sanctions and trade frictions are diverting Russian-related flows and lifting demand for compliant capacity, while the compliant VLCC fleet hasn’t grown meaningfully since 2021 as older units drifted into the shadow fleet or aged out. “When demand nudges up against a structurally tight supply side, upside convexity appears,” Xclusiv explained. There’s also a seasonal and macro overlay. Q4 is historically VLCCs’ strongest quarter, and OPEC+ is nudging output higher into year-end. “Unless oil supply or risk sentiment abruptly reverse, September’s jump looks less like a spike and more like the opening phase of VLCC’s delayed upcycle,” Xclusiv predicted, a point of view shared by analysts at Poten who argued in a new report: “Many of the drivers that pushed the market up so far will remain in place for a while. More OPEC oil is coming, China will likely continue to build inventories, and many OECD countries also have low stock levels that will need to be replenished. VLCC deliveries for the remainder of 2025 are very limited and the fleet of sanctioned vessels, unavailable for the mainstream markets continues to grow.” Not everyone is convinced that this is the start of a prolonged bull-run. Jefferies expects a moderate easing, pointing out how FFAs are trading at an implied TCE on the Arabian Gulf to China route of $90,000 a day for the remainder of September and $75,000 a day for October. Dry Bulk Vietnam’s cement exports are booming, with record volumes shipped in 2025, but analysts warn rising protectionism and energy costs could yet slow momentum. According to Ursa Shipbrokers, cement and clinker loadings from Vietnamese ports hit 22.5m tonnes in the first eight months of this year, a 13.3% rise on the same period of 2024 and the highest January–August total on record. The Gulf of Tonkin hubs of Cam Pha, Ha Long and Nghi Son remain the main gateways for this trade, which has more than doubled over the past decade. Vietnam today holds the world’s third-largest cement production capacity at around 150m tonnes per annum, behind only India and China. Its role as a leading seaborne exporter of cement and clinker has grown in tandem with a rapid expansion of coal-fired power, which has fuelled its electricity-hungry cement plants. Braemar data show exports regained momentum in the first seven months of 2025, with long-haul geared bulkers carrying cargoes to the US and Africa. The US has become a surprising growth market: the first half of 2025 saw a record 2.4m tonnes shipped, most to the Pacific coast. Côte d’Ivoire, meanwhile, imported more than 600,000 tonnes of clinker in January–July, compared to nothing a year earlier. But headwinds are gathering. From Aug