Tanker Market: Will a “Grey” Fleet of 350 Ships Be Decommissioned? in Hellenic Shipping News 16/01/2026 The tanker market could be thrust forward by the potential scrapping of some 350 tankers, which are estimated to form a main part of the sanctioned Venezuelan trade. In its latest weekly report, shipbroker Xclusiv said that “the first weeks of 2026 have delivered a tectonic shift to the global tanker market, as the U.S. military intervention in Venezuela—resulting in the capture of President Nicolás Maduro on January 3rd—thrusts the heavy crude sector into a period of “enforced transparency”. The immediate fallout is characterized by a significant departure bottleneck rather than a collapse in demand; while China’s appetite for Venezuelan grades remains intact, the ability to physically move barrels has hit a logistical wall. Market intelligence suggests that several VLCCs scheduled to load in Venezuelan waters have recently performed mid-Atlantic U-turns, as the tightening U.S. blockade and “Operation Southern Spear” interdictions raise the stakes for shipowners operating in the “shadow” economy. This disruption is particularly acute in the Riau archipelago, the world’s busiest hub for opaque ship-to-ship transfers, where the number of “dark” operations involving Venezuelan, Iranian, and Russian barrels surged in the previous year but now faces an existential threat from heightened enforcement”. Source: Xclusiv Shipbrokers According to Xclusiv, “as the U.S. government moves to market between 30 and 50 million barrels of seized Venezuelan oil through authorized channels, the trade is poised for a massive structural reconfiguration. This shift represents a potential “death knell” for a segment of the grey fleet—comprising roughly 350 tankers—that has previously survived on sanctioned flows. If these older, non-compliant vessels cannot return to the mainstream market due to lack of technical class or insurance, the effective supply of tanker capacity could tighten significantly. For Greek owners, who have spent the better part of 2025 selectively modernizing their fleets with eco-designed Suezmaxes and Aframaxes, this transition from “dark” to transparent trade creates a premium on compliant tonnage that can bridge the heavy crude gap”. “The geopolitical vacuum left by the disruption of Venezuelan-to-China flows is already being contested by regional heavyweights. In India, leading refiners have expressed a conditional readiness to resume purchases of Venezuelan grades like Merey-16, provided they can do so in a compliant manner for non-U.S. buyers. Notably, some major Indian players have already signaled a shift by pausing Russian crude deliveries for January, illustrating a broader strategic pivot toward Western-regulated sources. Simultaneously, Canada is positioning itself as the primary “unsanctioned” alternative for the Pacific. Source: Xclusiv Shipbrokers With the Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) pipeline already operational, Canadian producers are aggressively targeting the Asian market, offering heavy barrels with significantly shorter sailing times to China, South Korea, and Japan compared to Atlantic-origin shipments. The widening price discount for Western Canadian Select—recently hitting nearly USD 15/bbl against the benchmark—further incentivizes this shift, potentially boosting Aframax and Suezmax utilization on the Trans-Pacific leg”, the shipbroker added. “Ultimately, the events in Caracas serve as a catalyst for a multi-