The year 2026 had started out positively for crude oil tanker freight markets. The consensus view of falling oil prices, a global oil production surplus of anywhere from 2m to 4m barrels per day and strong refinery utilisation on the back of firm margins, all pointed to rising crude oil tanker demand and income. Crude oil cargo volumes were up by more than 5% in the first two months of this year compared to 2025, led by growth in South American cargoes but also by increased OPEC output in the Middle East. The central thesis for the oil markets in 2026 has been thrown into doubt by the war in the Middle East. As the US fleet bore down on Iran, oil and tanker markets barely flickered. Once the bombs and missiles began to fall across the region, the reaction has been both predictable and shocking. Oil prices have resembled the track of a yoyo, spiking and slumping on the back of each Truth Social post sent from Pennsylvania Avenue or Mar-a-Largo. Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has stranded scores of oil tankers and 20,000 sailors. As the conflict develops, the strait has become passable for ships flying certain flags but impassable for others. While China has benefited from its close relationship with Iran, ships thought to be associated with the US and its allies face a more daunting transit. Hormuz, the Gulf of Oman and Persian Gulf have been declared a ‘Warlike Operations Area’ by the International Transport Workers’ Federation (ITF) and the Joint Negotiating Group, an association of unions and employers. Seafarers operating under ITF conditions are entitled to danger money and can decide to leave their ship rather than sail into the area. Add the higher payments to higher insurance costs and ballooning fuel prices as fuel oil supplies tighten globally, and one has the recipe for the unprecedented spike in freight prices out of the region. Freight prices on the Middle East to China voyage were already well ahead of their seasonal pattern in January and February, averaging around $117,000 per day up to February 27. By March 6, they had spiked to an assessed $485,959, basis Baltic Exchange data, with some market sources mentioning rates fixed at over $500,000 per day for the six week voyage. By March 13, there had been a lull in oil and freight prices, with the Baltic’s assessment falling to $326,198 per day only for it to rise to $400,928 per day by March 20. For the tanker markets, the spike in Middle East freight spread globally on the back of constrained tonnage and a dash for barrels. US-China crude oil assessments peaked at over $210,000 per day on March 6 and were still at over $137,000 a day on March 20. Cross-Med aframax rates leaped from their low of around $41,000 a day at the start of the year to $138,400 a day on March 20. Suezmax daily TCEs on the West Africa to Europe voyage sat at $47,700 on January 7 only to hit $74,362 on February 20 and increase from there to a peak of $123,500 per day on March 13 before sliding slightly to $118,650 per day on March 20. On the transatlantic suezmax voyage from Guyana to ARA, day rates were $73,627 on February 20 but $120,500 on March 20, via a peak of $132,680 a week earlier. In the product tanker freight market, the benchmark LR2 Middle East to Japan day rate of $36,767 on February 20 was at $120,000 per day by March 6 and despite some respite was still over $83,000 a day by March 20. The mirror voyage on an LR1 from Jubail to Rotterdam was rated at $22,093 per day on February