Punit Oza from consultancy Maritime NXT gleans what lies ahead in the Trump 2.0 era. Albert Einstein famously said, “Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again expecting different results.”. Donald Trump may not be liked by many around the world but he is definitely not insane. In fact, he has proved to be a man with a plan (however crazy) and has executed most of them like a skilled businessman. This time around he has one more advantage – he does not need to worry about getting re-elected. He does not qualify for re-election, as he will now begin his maximum second term. But he has decided to do things differently. For one, he has built up a team of fierce loyalists and those who completely align with his vision and mission. Listening to the confirmation hearings of some of his team members gives a sneak peek on what we can expect from the next four years. While Trump has the big picture, the real impact will be felt as the plans are executed, one after another. The news is that over 100 executive orders from tariffs to bidding for Greenland are awaiting him on the very first day, immediately following his inauguration. Looking specifically at shipping and trade, the history, background, comments and opinions of some of these Trump team members offer a glimpse of what is to come. Secretary of State: Senator Marco Rubio of Florida While Rubio has long been a China hawk, he has not seen eye to eye with Trump in past. However, Trump has simply gone with a face that will keep America front and centre in global negotiations. Rubio’s stand on Greenland in the confirmation hearing was eye opening. The entire statement about Greenland is about geopolitics and shipping. Though the presence of critical minerals was casually mentioned by Rubio, it is a key reason to buy Greenland. The other aspect of Greenland’s geographical position and as a critical location for the developing North Arctic Route, mostly used by Russia & China, has been repeated both by Trump and Rubio. If the Americans can curtail the Russian and Chinese traffic on that route, especially the dark fleet, this will have a profound impact on trade ex-Russia to the Far East. It will also put pressure on Putin to bring the war to an end. From a shipping perspective, the Chinese will have to source some of its energy from sources other than Russia. India, too, will get impacted negatively. Shipping though may stand to gain as the US will look to fill some of those gaps, driving tonne-mile demand growth. Treasury Secretary: Scott Bessent Only an insider knows what is on the inside, being the perfect choice to solve the problem and also ensure trust and expertise. Bessent fits that bill well. His confirmation hearing was like Trump in a Wall Street suit, favouring sanctions, tariffs, tax cuts and protecting the dollar’s role in global trade. However, being an insider, he was clear that the US does not have much ammunition left to shoot away a market crisis, which is worrying. Pressure on Russia, as mentioned above, will potentially create trade flows, especially ex-US. Also, reintroducing tax cuts, especially for the ultra-rich, will push the US back into the great consumption culture, as seen in the previous Trump term. Had covid not intervened, the consumption gravy train would never have stopped. This would make tariffs inefficient as the consumers would still demand the same goods, just paying more for them. This is good news for Asia as it is able to push a lot more goo