Hormuz shock shifts shipping fuel strategy in International Shipping News 06/06/2026 O ngoing disruption stemming from the conflict in the Middle East is doing more than just driving up operational expenses; it is actively reshaping the relative commercial viability of alternative fuels, according to experts at ING. Historically, fuel strategies were once a predictable calculation tied to compliance and marginal cost containment. However, the current environment has forced a strategic pivot toward dual-fuel flexibility, operational resilience, and supply security. ING’s Gerben Hieminga and Rico Luman recently examined two price scenarios from a Northwest European perspective. In a low-price environment where the Strait of Hormuz is fully open, traditional marine fuels behave normally, with marine gas oil (MGO) pricing at $750 per tonne. However, under the high-price scenario dictated by a fully closed strait, the economics fall apart. In this situation, MGO prices spike violently to $1,500 per tonne, while very low sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) doubles from $500 to $1,000 per tonne. As Hieminga and Luman note, the Middle East war has compressed the supply of oil and oil products to such an extent that traditional maritime fuels bear the brunt of the volatility. Crucially, while natural gas and power inputs rise as well, they do not experience the same exponential leap. Liquified natural gas (LNG), though affected, benefits from a wave of new capacity coming online and the stabilising presence of regional pipeline networks and domestic production. This creates an economic distortion that alters the competitive field for alternative shipping fuels, the ING authors note. As the report points out, the high-case scenario hits oil products significantly harder than gas and power inputs, accelerating a shift in relative costs. “When oil products spike and gas rises less, the relative economics of LNG and (to a lesser degree) methanol and even ammonia improve quickly, even if th