New UNCTAD monitor warns vulnerable economies face the heaviest burden from oil shocks in World Economy News 04/06/2026 Rising oil prices triggered by disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz are placing growing pressure on vulnerable economies, threatening to increase import costs, fuel inflation and strain public finances across some of the world’s poorest countries. The findings come from “Strait of Hormuz Disruptions: The burden of oil price shocks on vulnerable economies”, a new edition of a UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) monitoring series examining the evolving economic consequences of disruptions linked to one of the world’s most important energy corridors. This edition focuses on least developed countries and small island developing states – economies that are often highly dependent on imported fuel and have limited capacity to absorb external shocks. The series builds on recent UNCTAD analysis warning that disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could trigger wider trade, food, transport and financial shocks, and highlighting the importance of early-warning data to understand how such risks spread through the global economy. From geopolitical shock to development challenge While tensions in the region may fluctuate, their economic consequences can linger far longer. Prior to the recent disruptions, the Strait of Hormuz handled roughly one-fifth of global oil shipments. Since the disruptions began on 28 February this year, crude oil prices have risen sharply, increasing costs across transport networks, supply chains and energy markets worldwide. For vulnerable economies, however, the impact is particularly acute. Of the 75 vulnerable economies analyzed by UNCTAD, 65 are net oil importers, with imports heavily concentrated in refined oil products. Together, they are home to nearly 1 billion people, with more than 30% of the population living on less than $3 a day. UNCTAD estimates that, based on current import levels, a sustained 50% increase in refined oil