Middle East war disrupts dry bulk commodity trade as Hormuz shipping grinds to a halt in Dry Bulk Market,International Shipping News 10/03/2026 The war in the Middle East is disrupting shipping patterns and raising risks across multiple dry bulk supply chains. Pellet supply in the region is at risk as vessels avoid the Gulf, while steel imports may decline. In energy markets, LNG disruptions and tighter gas inventories could lift European coal demand, while petcoke flows through Hormuz face supply risks. Grain markets remain broadly stable but fertiliser trade through the Strait of Hormuz is increasingly vulnerable. Freight markets have seen higher bunker costs and war risk premiums. Iron Ore & Steel: Middle East conflict threatens pellet trade and regional steel demand The Iran-US/Israel war is set to disrupt iron ore pellet supply in the Middle East and weaken regional steel consumption. Iran and Bahrain together accounted for roughly 18% of global seaborne pellet exports in 2025, and shipments from both producers are now at risk. On the steel side, Iran’s exports as well as imports into other Middle East Gulf countries face disruption, potentially weighing on construction and industrial activity across the region. China is also indirectly affected, as its pellet imports from the Middle East and its steel exports to the region will both decline. Shipping data already suggest a slowdown in raw material flows into the Gulf. Since the outbreak of hostilities on 28 February, no bulk carriers loaded with iron ore have been observed entering the Gulf to supply pellet plants and direct reduced iron (DRI) facilities. Several vessels previously bound for Gulf ports, including Cape Shangrila, HT Huang Shan, and William Oldendorff, appear to have diverted away from the region. Iron ore prices have so far shown limited reaction to the conflict and traded within a narrow range over most of the past week. Market sentiment improved after Beijing pledged on 5 March to stabilise the country’s struggling property sector, which lifted futures prices. The most traded DCE contract, May 2026, rose 1.40% w/w to 759 yuan/t on 5 March, while the SGX April 2026 contract gained 1.91% to $100.25/t at the time of writing. Global seaborne iron ore supply remains strong. Exports reached a year-to-date high of 34.30Mt in the week ending 1 March, well above the five-year average of 31.50Mt. In Guinea, two bulk carriers departed the port of Morébaya within the same week for the first time, likely reflecting improved rail capacity following the deployment of four additional locomotives since the third week of February. On the demand side, Chinese seaborne iron ore imports fell to 22.40Mt last week, the lowest level since April 2025. This was largely due to weather-related shipment disruptions from Australia and Brazil earlier in February. Nonetheless, with port inventories still at multi-year highs and steel production soft compared to the year-ago level, the Chinese iron ore market continues to be oversupplied. Coal: Hormuz Strait risk poses systemic threat to coal and petcoke markets The Qatar Ras Laffan LNG terminal’s force majeure has the potential to cause waves of disruption in the energy complex. The steep increase in gas prices opens up the possibility of coal-to-gas switching economics in Europe for the first time since 2022. Generation margins for European coal units have not yet turned positive, as power prices have not risen proportionally, but the bullish