Panamax Supply Outlook as Hormuz Faces Strain in International Shipping News 18/04/2026 The ongoing uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz is impacting the Panamax dry bulk segment. According to recent media reports, a potential two-week extension to ceasefire discussions is under consideration, although this remains unconfirmed at the official level. In this context, Signal Ocean data show that the number of Panamax vessels in ballast condition within the Strait has remained stable at around 30 (as shown in the chart below), while laden vessel counts have declined sharply from late-February highs. This divergence points to emerging delays in loading or transit for vessels operating in the region amid ongoing disruptions. Scheduled Vessel Deliveries Highest since 2014 Panamax vessel deliveries are projected to reach a record high in 2026, with approximately 15 million dwt of new capacity entering the market, up from roughly 10–11 million dwt in the prior year. This expansion is expected to push the global dry bulk fleet near 220 million dwt, reinforcing a clear supply-side growth cycle. This increase in fleet capacity is taking place against a plateauing outlook for coal demand. According to projections in the IEA’s Coal Mid-Year Update (July and December 2025), global coal demand was expected to reach a record ~8.85 billion tonnes in 2025, before edging slightly lower in 2026 and stabilising near ~8.7–8.8 billion tonnes. Coal Demand Outlook: Policy Shifts and Market Pressures Energy Mix Trends The latest coal demand trend reflects structural changes in the global energy mix, particularly in China and India, which together account for the majority of consumption. While both countries are expanding renewable capacity at scale, coal continues to play a central role in energy security. This is resulting in a dual-track approach, combining ongoing coal utilisation for system stability with continued investment in renewables. China Market Dynamics In China, recent developments point to a gradual shift. While earlier data indicated a slowdown in coal plant approvals, geopolitical developments have reinforced coal’s role as a reliability buffer. At the same time, policymakers continue to advance a broader transition toward renewables and nuclear power. Domestic coal production remains a priority, limiting incremental import demand. India Market Dynamics In India, policy has moved more decisively toward reducing reliance on seaborne coal. The government is targeting an approximate 30% reduction in thermal coal imports in 2026, replacing imports with increased domestic production. At the same time, coal-fired plants are being operated at full capacity during peak demand periods, indicating higher utilisation without a corresponding rise in imports. Short-Term Drivers Recent geopolitical developments in the Middle East have introduced short-term volatility into energy markets, tightening gas supply and prompting temporary fuel switching toward coal in some regions. At the same time, these developments are accelerating investment in renewables and broader energy security measures. Demand Outlook If disruptions to energy markets persist, coal demand could see modest short-term support, potentially offsetting part of the expected decline in 2026. However, policy direction in major consuming countries suggests that any increase is likely to remain cyclical rather than structural, with long-term demand stabilising rather than returning to sustai