The Baltic Dirty Tanker Index averaged 1,395 points in 2022, then 1,150 points in 2023 and by December 4, 2024, it had averaged 1,105 point for the year to date. Where was the much vaunted supercycle that 2022 was supposed to herald? The last three years of the crude oil tanker freight market have been good but this year has underperformed most people’s expectations. As the world moved into a situation of oil surplus, in December 2023 OPEC+ took the decision to cap production, and the cap largely remains in place today. Analysts at Shipping Strategy say that total crude oil shipments in 2023 were about 2.4bn tonnes but will be only 2.35bn tonnes in 2024, a reduction of over 2%. The effect of the cut on tanker freight markets took months to become apparent because of the danger to shipping in the Red Sea which cut Suez Canal transits in Q1 this year by around 60% from their normal level. That added to overall tonne mile demand, creating the impression of a firm market. But since then, oil tanker transits through Suez have slowly increased again, dampening the tonne-mile effect of the Houthi actions. The behaviour of the so called dark fleet also clouded the crystal ball. Many older ships carrying uninsured or sanctioned oil sailed on wildly inefficient voyages, reversing course, performing ship-to-ship operations in unusual places, spending weeks stationary. The biggest loser this year may have been Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest exporter. In 2023, the kingdom exported 320m tonnes of crude oil and condensate. In December that year, OPEC+ announced the cuts to production that remain in place today. Saudi Arabia made the deepest cut. In the first eleven months of 2024, Saudi Arabia exported 281m tonnes, a reduction of 18m tonnes or 6%. Full year shipments could total 302m tonnes, which would shrink the kingdom’s market share from 13.5% last year to 12.9% this year. In January to November last year, Saudi oil was loaded onto 3,033 VLCCs compared to 2,514 in January to November this year, which is a 20 % reduction. For suezmaxes, the relative numbers were 252 and 217, a 16% reduction. For aframaxes, the reduction was 31%, from 127 to 97 cargoes. Basis what has been observed so far, the Q4 total this year could be as low as 500 cargoes compared with nearly 740 in Q4 last year. Kuwait has also done badly out of the OPEC+ production cap. Its exports will be down by about 17% this year to around 66m tonnes, shrinking its market share by half a percent to 2.8%. Iraq, the world’s fourth biggest exporter, could see a 5% reduction in exports this year to 165m tonnes, and a 0.2% cut in market share to 7%. Russia, the second biggest oil exporter, brushed off sanctions to maintain its oil exports, which were 254m tonnes last year and could be 250m tonnes this year, a decline of less than 2% which maintains its market share at around 10.5%. The biggest beneficiary of this may have been the UAE, the sixth largest crude oil exporter, which exported 142m tonnes of crude last year and is set to export 152m tonnes this year, a 7% increase by volume which also happens to increase its market share by 0.6% to 6.5%. In June, the UAE was given permission to pump an additional 300 ,000 barrels per day under the OPEC+ deal. The idea was that this would begin in January 2025. A slight case of jumping the gun may have occurred. The Americas also did well in 2024. US exports this year are estimated to be 213m tonnes, down 5% from 223m tonnes last year but Uncle Sam