market_report Tanker Markets & trade Splash247
The VLCC freight market slipped to an average of $29,800 a day for the first three weeks of August, adding to a three-month downturn from a peak of $48,000 a day average in May. The average for August over 2015-2023 is only $8,500 a day, so rates this month are nothing to be ashamed of, being the best since 2015 when China was hoovering up all available VLCCs to fill its newly completed strategic petroleum reserve, especially as oil prices were in the $40 per barrel range. Still, the recent slide in earnings has reverberated down to Wall Street. DHT Holdings reported that its revenue was $150m in Q2, slightly down on $152m a year earlier. Profits for Q2 were reported to be $44.5m, down from $57.1m a year earlier and from $47.1m in the previous quarter. DHT reported inventory build at Asian refiners as weak margins cut throughput, but suggested that this will reverse in due course, pushing up tanker demand. Operators are fixing (if not buying) the dip A raft of VLCC time charters including several for three years suggests that operators are fixing (if not buying) the dip and that they are optimistic about the market outlook. A rate of $53,000 a day for a three-year fixture on a scrubber fitted eco VLCC looks very tasty; operators must be very confident to fix on those terms. By contrast, a 2007 built VLCC without a scrubber was fixed for one year at a relatively lowly $40,000 a day. With oil prices falling and oil markets looking oversupplied, that could be a bargain even when paying for more expensive low-sulphur fuel. The suezmax market also weakened, dropping 20% so far in August at $24,700 a day compared to $37,600 a day in July, itself a step down from the June peak of $46,900 a day. This month saw the inauguration of the Baltic Exchange suezmax route TD27 from Guyana to ARA. It opened at $26,034, dipped to a low of $19,929 on August 14 but recovered to $24,047 on August 19. More significantly, its advent points to the increasing importance of the Atlantic as the growth area for supply as OPEC+ suppliers continue vainly to cut supplies in an effort to put a floor under oil prices. With WTI now down to $74 plus change for September delivery, and the OPEC basket price sitting below $80 on August 20, the Middle East-based cartel has to rely on geopolitics to shore up prices. Even the ever effervescent aframax markets have had an August to forget so far, with rates falling 27% on average to $26,600 day compared to $37,800 a day in July, itself down from the June peak of $51,800 a day. Still, the VLCC time charter market suggests that owners should retreat to their dachas and yachts in good cheer, and return in time for the Q4 upturn. The product tanker freight market was also down by 30% on average in August compared to July. LR2s average just $20,000 a day so far this month compared to $29,500 a day in July and an H1 average of $38,800 a day. LR1s average $24,500 a day in August after $36,200 a day was achieved in July and a record $46,800 a day in H1 this year. Even the workhorse MRs are down, averaging $23,700 a day so far this month compared to $32,300 a day in July and $37,500 a day in H1. There are owners who see this dip as a buying opportunity – take a bow, Torm who have recently acquired eight more MR tankers. Year to date earnings across the product tanker space are so far ahead of the long-term average that owners can tolerate a quiet month or two, preferring to focus on the cycle. For instance, LR2s averaged $9,300 a day fro
Take the tanker long view
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