EU Arctic policy review: Barents gas could hold the key for Europe’s energy security and supply diversification in Oil & Companies News 18/03/2026 A rethink of the European Union’s (EU) Arctic policy could keep Norway’s Barents Sea gas in play in the 2030s, offering Europe a nearby, low-emission supply option as its reliance on the global liquefied natural gas market grows, according to new Rystad Energy research and analysis. The European Commission is reviewing its 2021 Arctic policy and has opened a public consultation through 16 March 2026. With Barents projects typically needing five to 10 years to move from discovery to steady output, the signal the EU sends now will determine whether additional volumes from already-open Norwegian acreage are ready for the mid-2030s, or whether Europe will lean even more heavily on global LNG in the next decade. Rystad Energy’s analysis suggests that the EU could boost production in the Barents Sea by drawing a clearer boundary, both geographically and operationally, without necessarily weakening its climate stance. By defining the “Arctic” scope more narrowly and tying any eligibility to explicit emissions and environmental requirements, the EU could avoid treating Norway’s already-open Barents acreage the same as frontier areas. The approach would still be contested among environmental groups, and it wouldn’t change the underlying trade-offs around Arctic drilling, but it could influence how buyers and policymakers weigh supply options during the 2030s. In Rystad Energy’s base case scenario for the EU27 plus the UK, Norway supplies about 20-30% of gas demand through 2050, with LNG rising from 30% to 50% during the same period, increasing Europe’s exposure to global markets. The resource base is substantial, but converting it into deliverable supply is less than straightforward. The parts of the Barents Sea already open to exploration, according to Norwegian Offshore Directorate estimates, hold around 3.5 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe) of natural gas, or about 22 trillion cubic feet. Rystad Energy estimates producing fields and projects expected to be sanctioned by 2030 will contribute combined output of roughly 2.25 billion boe through 2050. Additional output beyond that would likely depend on new discoveries, coordinated development across multiple fields and, crucially, export capacity. Infrastructure is a significant swing factor and could limit long-term scalability. A 2023 study by Gassco and the Norwegian Offshore Directorate found that new Barents export capacity can be socio-economically profitable if sufficient volumes are proven. Today, the region’s main outlet is Hammerfest LNG, an export terminal in the far north, but it remains largely tied to the Snøhvit field, which limits flexibility to absorb any new volumes. A pipeline connection south into the Norwegian Sea network is one potential route, but it would require enough scale and synchronized timelines across projects to be financeable. Lead times in the Barents Sea are long, so clear policies matter. If the EU sets clear definitions and requires data-backed verification, it can keep near-term supply options open without blurring its climate standards. Tore Guldbrandsøy, Partner and Oil & Gas Analyst at Rystad Energy Emissions are one of the key points policymakers are considering during this review period, and this will directly impact how buyers view and compare future Barents gas supply to other sources. Norway’s upstr