Indian refiners ease Russian crude intake; overall imports seen resilient in short term in Freight News 09/02/2026 Even as India has reduced its exposure to Russian oil quite significantly, the recently announced India-US trade deal is unlikely to kill the appetite for Russian barrels for India’s oil marketing companies. Analysts expect imports of Russian barrels to be broadly stable through the first and early second quarter of 2026. “Following the India–US trade deal announced on February 2, India’s Russian crude imports are unlikely to see a near-term decline. Volumes remain largely locked in for the next 8–10 weeks and continue to be economically critical for India’s complex refining system, supported by deep discounts on Urals relative to ICE Brent,” Sumit Ritolia, lead research analyst, refining and modeling at Kpler said. Kpler expects Russian oil imports to remain broadly stable in the ~1.1–1.3 million barrels per day range through Q1 and early Q2, with any recent reduction offset by higher Middle East inflows. So far there is no indication of a structural shift away from Russian barrels. India’s Russian crude imports eased to around 1.1 mbd in January 2026, the lowest level since November 2022. State-run refiners which have already reduced their intake of Russian barrels to some extent, are likely to further cut down Russian oil imports, as per sources. According to data from Kpler, Indian Oil Corp purchased 468,000 barrels per day of Russian oil as of January 23 against 306,000 bpd last year while Bharat Petroleum imported 164,000 bpd, down 12% against 187,000 bpd a year ago. Hindustan Petroleum on the other hand did not buy Russian oil during the period. During January 2025, HPCL imported 59,000 bpd of Russian oil. Among private refiners, Nayara Energy imported 469,000 bpd of Russian oil while Reliance Industries made no purchases. At the same time, Indian refiners increased their crude sourcing from the Middle East and the US. IOC purchased 871,000 bpd of oil from the Middle East as of Jan 23, up 10% from last year, while BPCL imported 513,000 bpd of Middle Eastern grades, up 24% on-year. HPCL’s imports from the region stood at 93,000 bpd. RIL imported 177,000 bpd oil from the US, up from 94,000 bpd a year ago. HPCL’s imports from the US stood at 140,000 bpd, up from a meagre 12,000 bpd a year earlier. While the Russian volumes could soften further, following the announcement of the US–India trade deal, a complete halt looks unlikely at the moment, analysts say. “Even if PSU refiners scale back, Nayara is expected to continue lifting Russian barrels, given its ownership structure and current circumstances,” said Nikhil Dubey, Senior Research Analyst, Reining and Modeling at Kpler. While direct purchases from Rosneft and Lukoil have softened owing to US sanctions, alternative sellers including Tatneft, Redwood Global Supply, Rusexport, Morexport, and Alghaf Marine are increasingly stepping in to fill the commercial gap. “A more pronounced reduction would likely require a clear policy shift by the Government of India, which appears highly unlikely given that energy security and economics remain a primary policy objective amid increasingly complex geopolitical dynamics shaping global oil trade flows,” Ritolia said. Diversification Strategy Instead, the deal reinforces India’s ongoing diversification strategy at the margin, analysts note. State-run refiners including IOCL and BPCL have told Moneycontrol that they would continue