OPEC cuts 2026 oil demand growth forecast in Oil & Companies News 14/05/2026 Crude Oil Price Movements In April, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value dropped by $7.57/b, m-o-m, to average $108.79/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract increased in April by $2.86/b, m-o-m, to average $102.46/b, and the NYMEX WTI front-month contract increased by $7.67/b, m-o-m, to average $98.67/b. The GME Oman frontmonth contract dropped by $20.65/b, m-o-m, to $103.91/b. The Brent-WTI futures spread dropped by $4.81/b, m-o-m, to average $3.79/b in April. The forward curves of ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI steepened further in April, indicating the nearest futures contracts moving into stronger backwardation. The forward curve for GME Oman flattened in April, but remained in strong backwardation amid disruptions to sour crude supplies. World Economy The global economic growth forecasts remain unchanged from last month’s assessment at 3.1% for 2026 and 3.2% for 2027. The US economic growth forecasts remain at 2.2% for 2026 and 2.0% for 2027. In the Eurozone, the 2026 economic growth forecast is revised slightly down to 1.1% but remains at 1.2% for 2027. Japan’s 2026 economic growth forecast is revised slightly down to 0.8% but remains at 0.9% for 2027. The 2026 economic growth forecast for China is revised slightly up to 4.6% but remains at 4.5% for 2027. India’s economic growth forecast remains at 6.6% for 2026, and at 6.5% for 2027. Brazil’s economic growth forecasts remain at 2.0% for 2026 and 2.2% for 2027. Russia’s economic growth forecasts remain at 1.3% for 2026 and 1.5% for 2027. World Oil Demand Global oil demand is forecast to grow by a healthy 1.2 mb/d in 2026, y-o-y. The OECD is forecast to grow by about 0.1 mb/d, while the non-OECD is forecast to grow by about 1.1 mb/d. In 2027, global oil demand is forecast to grow by about 1.5 mb/d, y-o-y, showing an upward revision of about 0.2 mb/d from last month’s assessment. The OECD is forecast to grow by 0.2 mb/d, while the non-OECD is forecast to grow by about 1.3 mb/d. World Oil Supply Non-DoC liquids production (i.e., liquids production from countries not participating in the Declaration of Cooperation) is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026, unchanged from last month’s assessment. The main drivers of liquids production growth are expected to be Brazil, the US, Canada, and Argentina. In 2027, non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, also unchanged from last month’s assessment, driven mainly by Qatar, Brazil, Canada, and Argentina. Natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from countries participating in the DoC are forecast to increase by about 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026, to average about 8.8 mb/d. Additional growth of about 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, is forecast for 2027, to average about 8.9 mb/d. In April, crude oil production by countries participating in the DoC decreased by 1.74 mb/d, m-o-m, to average about 33.19 mb/d, according to available secondary sources. Product Markets and Refining Operations Refining margins dropped in the Northern hemisphere, pressured by higher feedstock prices and a recovery in European refinery runs and product output. On the US Gulf Coast (USGC), margins declined but retained most of the gains registered in the previous month. The weakness emerged from the middle and bottom sections of the barrel and was most pronounced with jet/kerosene. In Rotterdam, margins declined by double digits, with sizeable losses across the barrel.