OPEC Expects Drop in Demand for OPEC+ Oil in Oil & Companies News 12/02/2026 Crude Oil Price Movements In January, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $0.61/b, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $62.31/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract rose by $3.10/b, m-o-m, to average $64.73/b, and the NYMEX WTI front-month contract increased by $2.39/b, m-o-m, to average $60.26/b. The GME Oman front-month contract rose by $0.83/b, m-o-m, to average $62.79/b. The Brent–WTI front-month spread rose by $0.71/b, m-o-m, to average $4.47/b. The forward curves of all major crude benchmarks strengthened, with the front end of the curves for both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI moving into stronger backwardation. Oil supply outages, easing selling pressure from speculators and robust physical market fundamentals supported front-month contracts. The forward curve for GME Oman was little changed, m-o-m. Speculative sentiment turned bullish, with hedge funds and other money managers sharply increasing their net long positions. World Economy The global economic growth forecasts remain unchanged from last month’s assessment at 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027. The US economic growth forecast is revised up slightly to 2.2% for 2026, but remains at 2% for 2027. In the Eurozone, the economic growth forecasts remain at 1.2% for both 2026 and 2027. Japan’s economic growth forecasts remain at 0.9% for both 2026 and 2027. The economic growth forecasts for China remain at 4.5% for both 2026 and 2027. India’s economic growth forecasts remain at 6.6% for 2026 and 6.5% for 2027. Brazil’s economic growth forecasts remain at 2.0% for 2026 and 2.2% for 2027. Russia’s economic growth forecasts remain at 1.3% for 2026 and 1.5% for 2027. World Oil Demand The global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 remains at 1.4 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month’s assessment. The OECD is forecast to increase by 0.15 mb/d, while the non-OECD is forecast to grow by about 1.2 mb/d. In 2027, global oil demand is forecast to grow by about 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month’s assessment. The OECD is forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d next year, while the non-OECD is forecast to increase by about 1.2 mb/d, y-o-y. World Oil Supply Non-DoC liquids production (i.e., liquids production from countries not participating in the Declaration of Cooperation) is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026, unchanged from last month’s assessment, mainly driven by Brazil, Canada, US, and Argentina. In 2027, non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, unchanged from last month’s assessment, mainly driven by Brazil, Canada, Qatar, and Argentina. Natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from countries participating in the DoC are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026, to average about 8.8 mb/d, followed by similar growth in 2027 of about 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, to average about 8.9 mb/d. In January, crude oil production by countries participating in the DoC decreased by 439 tb/d, m-o-m, to average about 42.45 mb/d, according to available secondary sources. Product Markets and Refining Operations In January, refining margins declined in all reported trading hubs. Stronger feedstock prices and seasonal demand-side pressures weighed on refining margins, despite a significant rise in offline capacity due to the severe winter in the Atlantic basin and extended maintenance in Asia. In the US Gulf Coast (USGC), losses stemmed from the bottom section of the barrel as incre