Mexican crude arbs shift east as Atlantic sour pressure builds in Freight News 12/06/2026 Mexican crude is still anchored in the Atlantic, but the trade is becoming harder to price on historical flows alone. Lower export availability, heavier sour competition in the USGC and Europe, and fresh eastbound flows are making destination economics more important. With Maya now looking more competitive into East Asia, PMI’s next cargo decision is increasingly about where the arb clears strongest, not just where the barrel has traditionally gone. Key Takeaways • Atlantic outlets are getting crowded: Mexican arrivals into the USGC have trended lower as domestic refining absorbs more crude, while Venezuelan barrels have rebuilt as a competing heavy sour feedstock. • The eastbound arb is open: Maya complex margins into East Asia have improved versus Oman as delivered costs decline. • Scarcity raises the stakes: Lower Mexican export availability means PMI must optimize each cargo for the best netback, not just clear barrels. While PMI’s crude remains anchored to the USGC, recent dynamics point to a more arbitrage-led strategy. Mexican crude has traditionally cleared into US Gulf Coast refiners, where Maya remains a natural fit for complex sour-processing systems. But the USGC is no longer as straightforward as it once was. Dos Bocas is absorbing more crude into Mexico’s domestic refining system, reducing export availability and contributing to the sharp decline in Mexican arrivals into the Gulf Coast since 2023. At the same time, Venezuelan barrels have rebuilt into a meaningful competing heavy sour feedstock, giving USGC refiners more alternatives when negotiating for Maya. This creates a two-sided pressure on PMI: fewer Mexican barrels are available for export, but the barrels that do clear into the Atlantic face a more competitive buyer environment. Rising US sour exports into Europe have added another layer of pressure across Atlantic Basin sour grades. PMI’s June K-factor c