Goldman now sees oil exports from Gulf producers normalizing by late August in Freight News 13/06/2026 Goldman Sachs has pushed back its timeline for a recovery in Gulf oil exports, now expecting flows to normalize by late August rather than late June, while keeping its fourth-quarter 2026 Brent crude price forecast unchanged at $90 per barrel. The delay is offset by a smaller-than-expected supply deficit during the Strait of Hormuz disruption, the bank said. Goldman estimates a 5-6 million barrels per day (mb/d) deficit in the second quarter of 2026, well below the 14-15 mb/d hit to Middle East liquids production, as nearly 5 mb/d of demand destruction and over 4 mb/d of pre-war oversupply cushioned the impact. Spot Brent futures have fallen around 25% from their late March peak despite still-low flows through Hormuz, driven by a smaller physical market deficit and a moderation in investor positioning as fears of major escalation have eased since a ceasefire announcement. Goldman said full normalization in Gulf exports to their pre-war level of 23 mb/d could be achieved with Hormuz flows recovering to just 70% of pre-war levels, given existing redirections through Yanbu, Fujairah, the Gulf of Oman, and Ceyhan. “We still see the availability of pipeline capacity to destock previously produced oil as the key constraint on reopening,” economists led by Daan Struyven said in a note, while labor and materials availability are unlikely to be limiting factors, with drilling activity continuing across the region. For 2027, Goldman lowered its average Brent forecast by $5 to $80, citing higher supply and weaker demand. The bank lifted production estimates for the UAE — following its exit from OPEC — as well as for Brazil, Guyana, and Venezuela. Demand-wise, Goldman expects most of the current weakness to reverse after reopening but assumes “just over 10% of the demand weakness persists as China’s shift to alternatives accelerates,” pointing to China’s EV share in passenger