In the US, the dockworkers’ union, the ILA, aims to go on strike on October 1, while the employer group, the US Maritime Alliance, reaffirmed its willingness to negotiate on pay and conditions. Meanwhile, US retailers remain in scramble mode, rushing to fill inventory in anticipation of a supply crunch in October. The effect on freight markets has been muted in September, perhaps as the threat of industrial action was already priced in. The FBX01 index of freight rates from China to the US west coast stood at $6,819 per feu on September 20, unchanged on the week but down 4% on the four-week earlier level. The assessed rate from China to the US east coast via Panama (no more restrictions there) was down 4% on the week and 8% over four weeks as of September 20, at $8,952 per feu. The freight market may have peaked in late July and early August but these are still very high levels compared to the long term average. Transpacific shipping costs also remain unaffected by the 2.5 m teu and more of newbuildings that have delivered this year. Most market participants and analysts expect liner freight costs to fall in 2025, burdened by the extra weight of even more newbuildings. Liner companies continue to order series of new ships to meet future emissions targets. This month COSCO ordered a dozen 14,000 teu dual fuel methanol capable vessels from compatriot yard Cosco Heavy Industries of Yangzhou, with delivery from May 2027 to March 2029. The price was reported to be $179.5m per ship. Hapag-Lloyd has sought bids from shipyards to build it a massive series of up to 30 LNG dual fuel liner vessels, in addition to its 20 ship tender in August. On Asia to Europe routes, the extra tonne mile demand from routing round South Africa rather than through Suez continues to soak up additional tonnage, but no longer enough new tonnage to keep freight rates climbing as peak season recedes. One should probably at this point expect this routing to continue indefinitely as the Middle East conflict metastasises, but if trips via Suez resume, the effect on the freight market will be …is catastrophic too strong a word? During September, rates from China to the Mediterranean have come off by around a quarter, sitting at a still juicy $5,276 per feu on September 20 compared to $6,723 at the start of the month. Rates from China to North Europe have fared worse, falling 17% just in the week to September 20 and tumbling 30% in the month so far to sit at $5,412. To give you an idea of the damage these adjustments do to liner profits, assume a liner company loaded 20,000 teu in China on September 1 at an average freight rate of $7,770 for discharge in Europe. The total freight income would be $155.4m. Then assume the same company loads another 20,000 teu on September 20 at an average freight rate of $5,412. The total freight income would be $135.6m – almost $20m less for one voyage. Thankfully (from the liner operators’ perspective) fuel costs have fallen 6% during September. The liner companies will hope for further reductions in fuel costs to offset the effect on their profit and loss accounts of these dramatic falls in freight income. VLSFO at Singapore was approximately $635 a tonne at the start of the month but down to $600 on September 20. LNG prices in Singapore have been stickier, falling from around $680 per tonne of fuel oil equivalent in June to $620 in July then rising back towards $680 since then. Methanol prices have softened slightly in August and September