Trump says war with Iran to last four to five weeks as oil market weighs impacts in Oil & Companies News 03/03/2026 US President Donald Trump has said the US war with Iran is expected to last four to five weeks, but warned it could last longer, comments that provide no clear end date for the energy and economic impacts from the war, geopolitical risk analysts said. “Right from the beginning, we projected four to five weeks, but we have the capability to go far longer than that,” Trump said during a March 2 Medal of Honor ceremony. “We are already substantially ahead of our time projections. But whatever the time is, it’s okay.” The war between US-Israel and Iran lifted crude prices on March 2, with NYMEX April crude settling $4.21 higher at $71.23/barrel. Administration officials on March 2 said the White House remained focused on maintaining lower prices despite the conflict. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the administration would roll out a program led by Energy Secretary Chris Wright and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, designed to “mitigate” the impacts of any supply disruption. Crude vessel traffic remained nearly halted in the Strait of Hormuz on March 2. Around one-fifth of the world’s crude oil is shipped through the Strait of Hormuz, which lies just off the coast of Iran. “Obviously, markets are going to be reacting to news about what’s happening,” Rubio said. “And again, a reminder, think about it, this terroristic regime, led by radical clerics, has the potential to shut off 20% of global energy. That’s the kind of leverage they have because of their navy. … There is a plan in place. We anticipated this could be an issue, and Sec Wright and Bessent will begin to roll out those steps starting tomorrow to mitigate against the impact that could have.” Rubio did not elaborate on the program’s details. A Department of Energy spokesperson did not respond to requests for comment on whether the administration would consider releasing crude from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Price sensitivity Clayton Seigle, senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said there seems to be a discrepancy between the potential setup for triple-digit oil prices and very high natural gas prices, and Trump’s track record of being sensitive to high oil prices, high fuel prices and inflation. There is also a disconnect between the relatively small price increase for oil prices so far in this war compared with the start of the Russia-Ukraine war, Seigle said during a webinar hosted by CSIS. In 2022, when the oil market was anticipating 5 million b/d of oil Russian oil going offline, oil prices went up to $130/b for crude and $5/gallon for US gasoline, he said. “Either the traders and the administration know something that we don’t on the analyst side — that the situation is more benign than we are expecting — or we could be sleepwalking into triple-digit oil prices pretty soon,” he said. Colby Connelly, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, said the war will have a negative impact on inflation. Prices already were rising before the war simply because oil had been trading in the $70-72/b range due to tensions in the region, he said during a March 2 webinar. If there are any actual supply outages over the next week because of shut-ins or because of any kind of physical disruption, prices will easily be north of $80 per barrel, Connelly said. “We think that there is a potential $40 or so of upside right now, dependin