Shipping Interrupted: Tracking the Impact of Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz in International Shipping News 20/04/2026 March was not a normal month for oil markets. The US-Israeli strikes on Iran and ensuing de facto closure of the Strait has dramatically impacted the month’s tonne-mile data. Against that backdrop, the scale of the decline is perhaps less surprising than the question it raises: what does it tell us about where crude flows go from here? Across Aframax, Suezmax, and VLCC segments, total tonne miles fell 13.7% year on year in March, and 16.4% when normalised by the live fleet — lower than anything recorded during the COVID-19 pandemic. VLCCs are the primary vessel for Persian Gulf crude exports, so the Hormuz closure hit them hardest. Total VLCC tonne miles fell 20% YoY, and 27% per vessel. That per-vessel figure strips out any flattering effect from fleet growth, as it shows existing tonnage going largely unused as Gulf liftings collapsed. Aframax tonne miles were actually up 7% YoY (+3% per vessel), while Suezmax was broadly flat at 1% YoY ( 5% per vessel). This likely reflects non-Gulf trade routes continuing to function — shorter and medium-haul flows that don’t depend on Hormuz transit. Before the war, there was growing discussion about Asian refiners reaching further into the Atlantic Basin for crude — a trend that, if real, should eventually show up as rising VLCC tonne miles on long-haul routes. March can’t tell us whether that was happening, because the Hormuz closure overwhelmed any such signal. April is the first month where we might start to see whether Asian refiners are genuinely compensating for lost Gulf supply by pulling harder from the Atlantic. If they are, VLCC tonne miles should begin to recover — and on longer average voyage lengths than before. If they don’t, it would suggest either that alternative supply isn’t flowing at the scale the narrative implies, or that demand destruction is offsetting any rerouting effect. March tonne miles tell us the market absorbed a significant shock. What they can’t yet tell us is how trade flows are adapting to it. A Fifth of the World’s Offshore Vessels are at Risk in the Persian Gulf The Middle East conflict has delivered an immediate shock to the offshore market. Saudi Aramco, QatarEnergy, Kuwait Petroleum and ADNOC have all reduced, suspended or declared force majeure on production, with Gulf oil exports falling over 60% to around 9.7 million barrels per day for the week ending March 15. The closure of key offshore fields including Safaniya, the world’s largest offshore oil field, alongside Marjan, Zuluf and Abu Safa has contributed to an estimated 2 million to 2.5 million barrels per day reduction in Saudi production. QatarEnergy has also shut down all gas production at its offshore North Field in the Persian Gulf and declared force majeure. With repairs to the Ras Laffan LNG terminal expected to take up to five years, it puts one of the region’s most significant long-term OSV and OCV demand programmes on hold. OSVs and OCVs supporting drilling, logistics, subsea and field maintenance across the region are now without active operations and with no clear timeline for resumption. The scale of the fleet exposed to disruption is also significant. The region currently hosts 1,440 OSVs, 432 OCVs and 156 jack-up rigs, representing 19% of the global OSV fleet, 18% of the global OCV fleet and 27% of the global jack-up market, according to VesselsValue data. Across al