Fitch Ratings Revises Global Shipping Outlook to Neutral on War-Led Tanker Rate Surge in International Shipping News 12/06/2026 F itch Ratings has revised its 2026 outlook for the global shipping sector to ‘neutral’ from ‘deteriorating’, reflecting a war-driven increase in demand for alternative suppliers and routes, primarily for oil and oil products. This has led to higher tonne-mile demand and a sharp increase tanker shipping rates. Container shipping has also benefitted moderately from higher rates, although this will only reduce the scale of the decline in the industry’s 2026 profits that we had expected before the Iran conflict. Unrelated to the war, dry bulk shipping is also likely to benefit in 2026 from higher demand and, consequently, increased rates, primarily for Capesize vessels. Supply chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions have become dominant drivers of shipping profitability in recent years, starting with Covid-driven port congestions in container shipping, followed by the Ukraine war that affected tankers, the Red Sea disruption for container shipping, and now the Iran war. However, uncertainty and material risks remain for the market beyond 2026 due to the potential rate normalisation and overcapacity in container shipping. The Iran war and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz will help increase profits in the tanker sub-segment. Over 20% of global seaborne oil transited through the strait before the conflict. The resulting shortfall is partially covered by the release of oil reserves, the use of bypass pipelines and supply growth. However, importers are also sourcing oil and oil products from alternative suppliers such as the US, Brazil and West Africa, leading to an increase in tonne-mile demand for tankers. As a result, charter rates for tankers, particularly for very large crude carriers, have increased significantly. This is likely to be a short-term benefit for tanker shipping for the remainder of 2026, based on Fitch’s base-ca