Fitch Ratings Revises Global Oil & Gas Sector Outlook to Improving on Higher Prices in Oil & Companies News 10/06/2026 The revision of the global Oil & Gas sector outlook for 2026 to ‘improving’ from ‘neutral’ reflects higher near-term price assumptions, which will translate into higher revenue and earnings for oil and gas producers compared with 2025, Fitch Ratings says. The average 2026 Brent price assumption of USD87/barrel is above the actual average price of USD68/barrel in 2025. Our revised oil price assumptions assume the Strait of Hormuz closure will last for about five months, until about end-July, compared with one to two months previously. Average annual oil prices are likely to be lower if the closure lasts for less than five months but could be higher if the closure lasts longer than we expect. We continue to assume a quick recovery in production following the strait’s reopening, as there has been no material damage to oil infrastructure. Oil stored on tankers and in onshore storage is likely to be sold first, followed by the resumption of curtailed production. We expect production to ramp up to broadly normalised levels within several weeks, reflecting the region’s geology and producers’ ability to manage output under OPEC quotas. We also expect market oversupply to return in 4Q26, which will reduce prices. We expect Brent to stay at USD100-110/barrel in June-July during the Hormuz closure, before falling to about USD70/barrel by September, a level driven by supply and demand fundamentals, albeit with a residual geopolitical risk premium. OPEC is likely to produce up to maximum capacity to offset volumes lost due to the closure. OPEC spare capacity stood at 3.6 mmbpd before the conflict. The increased Title Transfer Facility gas assumptions (USD14/mcf in 2026 compared with about USD12/mcf in 2025) reflect the disruption to Qatari LNG flows through Hormuz. Assuming the strait reopens about end-July, the European gas market will remain tight