Are ECB policymakers turning more patient on rates? in World Economy News 28/04/2026 Investing.com — The European Central Bank is expected to hold interest rates at 2% at its April 30 meeting, with policymakers signaling they need more time to assess the economic fallout from the Middle East conflict before deciding on any move, according to UBS Global Research. UBS maintained its baseline forecast that the ECB will hike rates by 25 basis points each in June and September, with a pause in July, bringing the benchmark rate to 2.5%. The brokerage said the April meeting will give the Governing Council an opportunity to weigh the latest data and geopolitical developments against the ECB’s March macro projections and alternative scenarios. The shift in tone from Frankfurt came after ECB President Christine Lagarde and board member Isabel Schnabel made remarks that UBS said “alleviated concerns” that the brokerage could move sooner or faster than expected. Those comments stood in contrast to press reports published immediately after the March meeting, which had suggested the ECB might hike as early as April. UBS said it had in recent weeks seen forecast risks skewing toward an earlier, faster, and larger hiking cycle, including the possibility of moves in April and June, or June and July. But the recent official commentary has, in UBS’s view, raised the bar for an April hike and lowered the risk of a more aggressive policy response than its baseline assumes. Rate markets reflected the shifting picture. Before the Middle East conflict began, markets were pricing around 10 basis points of ECB rate cuts during 2026. By late March, that had swung to more than 80 basis points of hikes priced in. Following Lagarde and Schnabel’s remarks, that pricing retreated to around 55 basis points, before falling further to around 43 basis points after reports emerged that Iran may no longer be obstructing the Strait of Hormuz. UBS flagged that if the Strait of Hormuz news were confirmed and proved durable, it could lead to lower energy prices and give the ECB additional time before acting on rates. However, the bank cautioned that it was premature to conclude ECB rate hikes are off the table entirely. Source: Trading Economics 2026-04-28 hellenicshippingnews... window.___gcfg = {lang: 'en-US'}; (function(w, d, s) { function go(){ var js, fjs = d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0], load = function(url, id) { if (d.getElementById(id)) {return;} js = d.createElement(s); js.src = url; js.id = id; fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js, fjs); }; load('//connect.facebook.net/en/all.js#xfbml=1', 'fbjssdk'); load('https://apis.google.com/js/plusone.js', 'gplus1js'); load('//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js', 'tweetjs'); } if (w.addEventListener) { w.addEventListener("load", go, false); } else if (w.attachEvent) { w.attachEvent("onload",go); } }(window, document, 'script')); tweet Share