Commodities Outlook 2026 – where next – Deutsche Bank in Commodity News 21/02/2026 Copper is up, oil down, but amid the uncertainty and volatility that characterises the current geopolitical landscape there is one constant – China. As the world’s second biggest economy enters its year of the Fire Horse, flow’s Will Monroe shares key updates from Deutsche Bank Research’s Commodities Outlook, where supply and demand is clearly linked to what China might do next An uncertain geopolitical environment is expected to support higher commodities prices this year, according to the Deutsche Bank Research Commodities team in their 26 January Commodities Outlook for 2026. The report’s authors note that a “fragmented global operating environment” and “the likelihood of structurally higher geopolitical volatility” – realised in factors such as resource stockpiling and a changed US foreign policy – may have more important implications for the global commodities market in 2026 than a healthy “macroeconomic climate where the US and Germany re-accelerate, China moderates and India continues its structural ascent”. Great-power competition and resource nationalism are driving the need for redundant supply networks, while geopolitical tensions are also constraining downside risks in energy markets, the analysts said.1 Drawing on the team’s insights, this article offers a snapshot of what may lie ahead for industrial metals and crude oil, which are important barometers of economic growth in both developed and emerging markets. Michael Hsueh, Research Analyst, Macro Research, Deutsche Bank“Great-power competition and resource nationalism are driving the need for redundant supply networks” Copper Copper prices have had a strong start to 2026, driven by factors including supply disruptions (mine supply in 2025 was heavily disrupted2) the spectre of US tariffs, demand related to the infrastructure and hardware required to support AI, and investment flows. The threat of US tariffs on refined copper is expected to lead to continued metals flows to the US, but copper demand in China has slowed sharply since Q3 2025, with high prices acting as a headwind to short-term domestic demand. As one of the key energy transition metals, as well as an essential component of the digital revolution, copper’s strategic value for corporates is firmly baked into the global economy – see our flow case study on how multinational producer KME’s copper is fuelling the digital age. Due to its strategic importance, Deutsche Bank Research expects further sector consolidation in the year ahead. Average prices of US$12,125 per metric tonne (/t) are forecast for 2026, peaking at US$13,000/t in Q2. See Figure 1 for a summary of inventory levels and the impact on the price. Aluminium The Commodities Outlook notes that the global aluminium market is undergoing “a significant transition”, in the wake of China’s long-standing annual production cap of 45 million tonnes (mt) first set in 2017. Aluminium is an important and highly versatile metal, used in sectors ranging from construction and transport to packaging and electrical – see Figure 2. Deutsche Bank Research analysts believe current market conditions – including a recovery in demand outside of China and slowing primary output from China – are supportive of higher prices, forecasting a 2026 average of US$2,925/t, with a potential high of US$3,100/t in the second quarter. Price volatility in the coming months could arise if a Russia-Ukraine