Fitch Ratings Raises its Metals and Mining Price Assumptions in Commodity News 16/03/2026 Fitch Ratings has increased its metals and mining assumptions, reflecting commodity-specific supply and demand drivers. The increased copper assumptions over the entire period reflect rising demand from electrification, including power grid reinforcement, and data centre construction. The market remains tightly balanced, with very low inventory levels; recent supply disruptions have also pushed prices higher. This is despite a slowdown in the implementation of energy transition policies in some developed markets. Higher mid-cycle prices reflect declining grades at existing mines, while the pace of new project approvals is constrained by onerous permitting processes, as well as solid demand fundamentals. The increased iron ore assumptions reflect higher mining costs, which provide mid-cycle price support at about USD75/tonne. Year-to-date prices above USD100/tonne are likely to ease as supply increases and Chinese port inventories rise. The increased short-term coking coal assumption reflects strong prices in early 2026 following the aftermath of a cyclone in Australia. We expect prices to gradually decrease from 2Q26. The higher aluminium assumptions for the whole period reflect expectations of healthy demand growth in the coming years and limited scope for additional supply in the medium term, other than planned capacity additions in Indonesia and Southeast Asia. Expansion is constrained by the availability of the necessary infrastructure and a reliable, competitive power supply as new smelters can be built within a few years. The increased 2026-2028 zinc assumptions reflect our expectation that mine production will decline in 2026, while consumption remains robust, leading to a market deficit. We expect production to grow in 2027-2028 but demand is likely to remain steady, supporting a modest rise in prices. The higher gold assumptions for the entire period reflect significantly higher market prices, with central banks buying sizeable volumes to diversify reserves, and institutional and retail investors increasing their gold allocations. These positions will fluctuate but macro drivers – geopolitical tensions, falling interest rates and concerns about longer-term inflationary consequences of global trade fragmentation – are unlikely to abate in the near term. Platinum-group metals have seen increased investor interest as an alternative to gold and silver. Current prices are not supported by supply-demand dynamics. We assume prices will revert to levels supported by fundamentals in the longer term. We have lifted the mid-cycle assumption for platinum because it has stronger supply-demand fundamentals as it can substitute gold in jewellery and benefits from exposure to a broader range of end-markets. Palladium’s and rhodium’s uses are highly concentrated in catalytic converters. Mine production constraints in Russia support palladium prices. The increased thermal coal assumptions reflect tighter market conditions, especially in 1Q26, driven by lower Indonesian exports (arising from policy uncertainty) and softer Chinese domestic output. The higher short-term nickel assumption reflects lower production quotas set by the Indonesian government. The revised lithium assumptions reflect tightening supply and demand, supported by stronger-than-expected demand for energy storage systems and supply disruptions, including mining permit cancellations in China