New crop outlook: Higher fertiliser prices influence grower decisions in Commodity News 29/04/2026 The situation in the Middle East Gulf has not improved, with crossings of the Strait of Hormuz remaining minimal. Those of us tracking vessel movements, cargo flows, and port utilisation know that the past month has introduced new layers of disruption on top of an already strained trade picture. A fragile ceasefire, a US naval blockade, a brief reopening of the Strait, and then a reversion. Grain and fertiliser trade through the world’s most critical maritime chokepoint remains highly disrupted. Container trade: Still at zero Since the beginning of the conflict, there has been technically zero international container ship trade through the Strait of Hormuz. The only vessels crossing are those serving Iranian ports or attempting to leave the Gulf without any intention to return. Containers operate more like a bus than a bulk carrier. They depend on forward planning and guaranteed routing. That guarantee does not exist today. Recent weeks have made that painfully clear. Two Chinese-controlled vessels operated by COSCO were turned back at the end of March and only managed to cross on a second attempt. Several French-operated vessels under Indian flag were prevented from leaving during the short ceasefire period, with one physically attacked. They remain stuck. The only successful exits were four MSC vessels that crossed close to the Omani coast without adhering to Iran’s announced rules. Alternative ports on the eastern coast of the UAE and Oman, including Salalah, Sohar, and Korfakkan, are absorbing some volume through focused shuttle services using smaller vessels. But they cannot replace what has been lost. Any cargo arriving at these ports must travel overland to reach its destination, adding truck and rail costs on top of already elevated freight rates. Salalah itself faced strikes several weeks ago, closing the terminal for several days. The Bab el-Mandeb remains heavily restricted, meaning any cargo diverted to Jeddah or Aqaba must travel around Africa and face additional transshipment in the Mediterranean. Transit times have increased significantly. Only the most essential commodities are being prioritised. Food, pharmaceuticals, cold chain goods. Low-paying cargoes simply cannot absorb the premium. Dry bulk and fertiliser: Strait of Hormuz crossings remain minimal On the dry bulk side, the number of cargoes laden with grains and oilseeds entering the Middle East Gulf is limited. Loaded vessels destined for Iran that entered the Gulf pre-blockade have since discharged, seeing Iran more reliant on imports in Chabahar Bay. Vessels from South America are en route to the region, but whether they will attempt to cross the Strait remains an open question. The fertiliser picture is more concerning. There are a little over 40 vessels laden with fertiliser products bottled in the Middle East Gulf. Collectively, they are carrying approximately 2 Mt of fertiliser products, such as urea. Fertiliser loadings inside the Gulf have begun to slow as the number of ballast vessels has declined. When the Strait briefly appeared to open, several vessels began heading toward it, only to turn back when the US naval blockade was confirmed and attacks in the Arabian Sea and Gulf of Oman intensified. At Kpler, we have been verifying every Strait of Hormuz crossing since 28 February, accounting for AIS spoofing and vessels going dark. US planting: Soybean progr