The world oil market has this month been digesting the certainty of growing oil demand despite the energy transition as the COP30 meeting in Brazil could only manage a voluntary agreement to begin to discuss the phasing out of fossil fuels at some future date. Meanwhile, oil traders are grappling with the certainty today of oversupply as the US and OPEC crank open the taps. This month, the US Energy Information Administration even predicted a 13% rise in Alaskan output in 2026 after a quarter-century of declining output. That extra oil may be destined not for the refineries of Los Angeles but for those of the Far East. Over the last month, crude oil tanker markets have revelled in the inevitable consequence of ever more oil at sea, namely strongly higher freight rates. Average VLCC TCEs in the first 21 days of November were $112,981 after $81,673 for October. On the crucial Middle East to China voyage, TCEs were up 63% over 30 days to November 21 at $136,843 per day, and are on a firmly upward trend. The shorter voyage from the Middle East to Singapore enjoyed a 53% increase to $137,935. On the West Africa to China voyage, rates were up 47% to $118,486. The US to China voyage was rated at $94,010 per day as of even date, an increase over 30 days of 13%. The tanker freight market is now convinced that oil market fundamentals will underpin this freight boom for weeks if not months. The obvious possible constraint is a reduction in Chinese purchases of oil for its strategic reserve, but there is no sign yet of that. Barring the two-month spike in earnings in March and April 2020 as the pandemic lockdowns began, these are the highest rates since the multi-year boom of 2005 to 200808. No wonder there are now more than 130 VLCCs on order including 20 for the various accounts of John Fredriksen, according to media reports. However, only three of these units are scheduled for delivery this year and another 15 next year, so it will be 2027 before there is much danger of VLCCs being oversupplied, according to analysts at Shipping Strategy. After a bountiful October in which suezmax earnings averaged $67,206 (basis Baltic Exchange data), the first three weeks of November represented a veritable cornucopia, with rates averaging $87,360. In the Atlantic, rates from west Africa to Europe rose 21% to $77,101 over the month to November 21, though there exceeded $81,000 for a few days before that. Two suezmaxes are now loading crude every day in Guyana for shipment to Europe, causing rates to balloon to $76,750 as of November 21, via a peak of $81,071 on November 17, the highest on record since the Baltic Exchange began to report this voyage in mid-2024. On the more mature Black Sea to the Med route, rates leapt 40% to $108,506 on November 21. Traders cite seasonal Bosphorus fog and Ukrainian attacks on Tuapse and Novorossiysk as causing shortages of ships to load. On the original suezmax route, from the Middle East to the Med via Suez, day rates also rose in November, by 15% to $56,642. Those owners and investors who kept the faith after the advent of shale are finally seeing payday. The Baltic’s aframax A6 global average was $57,391 as of November 21, some 15% up over 30 days. Star performer was Kuwait to Singapore, up 36% to $59,504, followed by Singapore to Australia, up 34% to $47,207, while rates in the Caribs were also up 34% to $53,078. The new Canada to China voyage lumpsum rose 24% to $3.425m, which translates roughly to a highly satisfactory