OPEC Maintains Robust Oil Growth Forecast Over Next Four Years Maritime Activity Reports, Inc. June 18, 2026 © CURIOS - stock.adobe.com OPEC maintained its forecast for robust global oil demand growth in the next four years on Thursday and nudged up its longer-term view, citing a worldwide shift towards more supportive policies for oil use and saying there was no sign demand would peak. The 11-member Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries depends on oil for a large part of government income, and its views on demand are higher than those of others in the industry, such as the International Energy Agency. World demand will rise to 113.3 million bpd in 2030 from 105.1 million barrels per day in 2025, OPEC said in its 2026 World Oil Outlook on its website. The 2025 figure is little changed, and the 2030 forecast unchanged, from last year's report. OPEC has steadily increased its long-term oil demand forecast in the years following the COVID-19 pandemic, which in 2020 had prompted a demand contraction. ENERGY POLICY LANDSCAPE HAS SHIFTED, OPEC SAYS The report comes as OPEC contends with unprecedented challenges in 2026 as the Iran war has forced Gulf exporters to make huge export cuts, while the United Arab Emirates, an OPEC country for almost 60 years, shocked other members by leaving the group. Changes in government policy in the U.S., Europe and elsewhere and long-term growth in India, the Middle East, Africa and Latin America will drive the demand expansion, OPEC said, despite "impressive progress" by China in its shift to renewable energy. "The increased focus on energy security and energy affordability has shifted the energy policy landscape across the globe," OPEC said in the report. "This is reflected in policy adjustments and reversals, which are expected to be supportive of oil demand in the medium and long term." OPEC cited, for example, a slower-than-expected take-up of electric vehicles in Europe, and policy changes by U.S. President Donald Trump'