How the VLCC Market is Responding to a Possible Strait of Hormuz Reopening in International Shipping News 26/06/2026 Last week’s framework deal between the US and Iran marked the biggest turning point for the VLCC market since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz in late February. Under the 14-point MOU, Iran will gradually reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the US will lift its naval blockade of Iranian ports as well as remove sanctions on the country, and Iran will be permitted to freely sell its oil. Reopening the strait would unlock the roughly 214 Tankers backed up in the Gulf as of late last week, though numbers remain approximate due to spoofing and vessels going dark. Spot rates have already pulled back from the March all-time high of around 318,400 USD/day to around 196,800 USD/day, a decrease of c.38%. The market has likely not yet found a floor, as it remains to be seen if and by how much further rates will fall should the reopening fully materialise. The market nevertheless remains cautious: the 60-day ceasefire extension is a temporary agreement rather than a permanent resolution, and with the deal now signed, the focus shifts to underwriters, as insurance markets must now respond to a completed agreement rather than a tentative one. As of June 19, just 16 vessels had left the Inner Persian Gulf and are mainly from regional owners, with the majority of owners and operators awaiting clarity on insurance coverage before committing tonnage to the route. This week, the IMO released a formal evacuation plan for the hundreds of vessels and roughly 11,000 seafarers still stranded in the Persian Gulf, with traffic through the Strait of Hormuz picking up but remaining below pre-war levels. The US-Iran MOU permits toll-free passage for 60 days, though Iran has signalled it may seek to charge vessels beyond that window, leaving full normalisation uncertain. Weekly dirty tanker flow data underlines the scale of the disruption to date. China, the primary destination for Mi